Cuiaba 1-3 Gremio — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Brazil - Serie A, 11 Aug 2024

Cuiaba
1-3 HT 0-1
Gremio
📅11/08/2024 · 🕒01:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 ✗ 2nd Score 0-1 ✗
Brazil - Serie A – 2024

Cuiaba vs Gremio Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
36%
2.38
Draw
26%
2.88
Away
38%
2.9
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
62%
1.45
Over 2.5
38%
2.59
Both Teams to Score
Yes
41%
2.16
No
59%
1.61
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
35%
2.1
2-3 Goals
39%
1.82
4-5 Goals
18%
6.09
6+ Goals
8%
34.5
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
13%
3.78
1/2
9%
34.5
1/X
7%
14.65
X/1
14%
4.85
X/2
13%
5.63
X/X
12%
3.41
2/1
9%
34.5
2/2
16%
4.66
2/X
7%
14.85
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
36%
Home Win
38%
-1.8pp
26%
Draw
31%
-4.8pp
38%
Away Win
31%
+6.8pp
62%
Under 2.5
65%
-2.7pp
38%
Over 2.5
35%
+2.7pp
41%
BTTS Yes
42%
-1.3pp
59%
BTTS No
58%
+1.3pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Cuiaba v Gremio — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Cuiaba EU Bookmakers 42%
Head to Head
AWAY Gremio EU Bookmakers 34%
-3% / -20% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -3% / -5%
1.19/1.06 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.24/1.58
-30% / +36% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +22% / -27%
49% Ball Possession 51%
12 Total Shots 11
4 Shots on Target 3
4 Corners 3
362 · 82% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 381 · 82%
20.6 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 19.9
24.3 Crosses 16.1
2.3 Yellow Cards 2.7

Cuiaba vs Gremio Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Cuiaba
0W-1D-5L
AWAY Gremio
0.50 Avg Goals (FT) 1.67
0.90 xG 1.38
47% Ball Possession 53%
12 Total Shots 12
2 Shots on Target 6
5 Corners 4
341 Passes 414
81% Pass Accuracy 83%
19 Box Touches 19
19 Crosses 16
2 Yellow Cards 3
The Meetings
21.04.2024 Gremio Gremio 1-0 HT 1-0 Cuiaba Cuiaba BR1
03.09.2023 Gremio Gremio 2-0 HT 1-0 Cuiaba Cuiaba BR1
01.05.2023 Cuiaba Cuiaba 1-2 HT 1-1 Gremio Gremio BR1
07.10.2021 Gremio Gremio 2-2 HT 0-1 Cuiaba Cuiaba BR1
19.08.2021 Cuiaba Cuiaba 0-1 HT 0-1 Gremio Gremio BR1
18.11.2020 Gremio Gremio 2-0 HT 2-0 Cuiaba Cuiaba BRK

Cuiaba 1-3 Gremio — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Cuiaba
1-3
AWAY Gremio
0.51 xG 1.36
60% Ball Possession 40%
15 Total Shots 10
3 Shots on Target 6
5 Corners 5
450 Passes 266
86% Pass Accuracy 77%
25 Box Touches 17
28 Crosses 11
1 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Cuiaba vs Gremio
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Gremio got the better of Cuiaba 3-1 away from home. Half-time: 0-1.

Our pre-match split (36% / 26% / 38%) promised a tight game; Gremio found the edge the numbers couldn't. The goals read — under 2.5 goals (62%), no to both teams scoring (59%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Cuiaba had 60% of the ball to Gremio's 40%, shots finished 15-10, expected goals 0.51 to 1.36.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Gremio led the recent series with 5 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 0.50 goals for Cuiaba and 1.67 for Gremio.

What was the final score of Cuiaba vs Gremio?

Cuiaba 1-3 Gremio in the Brazil - Serie A on 11/08/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Cuiaba vs Gremio?

Before kick-off our model rated an Gremio win the most likely single outcome at about 38%, with the full match-result split Cuiaba 36%, draw 26%, Gremio 38%. The final score 1-3 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Gremio) — while Under 2.5, BTTS No went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Gremio) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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