Juventude 3-2 Botafogo — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Brazil - Serie A, 11 Aug 2024

📅11/08/2024 · 🕒17:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 0-0 2nd Score 0-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
27%
3.32
Draw
31%
3.28
Away
42%
2.03
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
60%
1.71
Over 2.5
40%
2.03
Both Teams to Score
Yes
43%
1.85
No
57%
1.85
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
35%
2.86
2-3 Goals
39%
1.77
4-5 Goals
18%
4.08
6+ Goals
8%
19.25
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 2.86 — our 35% vs market 29.1%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
8%
5.57
1/2
10%
27.0
1/X
6%
14.3
X/1
12%
7.14
X/2
20%
4.37
X/X
21%
4.3
2/1
7%
34.5
2/2
12%
2.8
2/X
4%
13.8
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
28%
Home Win
27%
+0.6pp
31%
Draw
27%
+3.4pp
42%
Away Win
46%
-4.0pp
60%
Under 2.5
55%
+5.3pp
40%
Over 2.5
45%
-5.3pp
43%
BTTS Yes
50%
-6.5pp
57%
BTTS No
50%
+6.5pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Juventude EU Bookmakers 30%
Head to Head
AWAY Botafogo EU Bookmakers 49%
+9% / +14% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -1% / +10%
1.12/1.05 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.98/1.08
-12% / +47% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +8% / -5%
44% Ball Possession 56%
11 Total Shots 12
4 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 5
272 · 75% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 389 · 81%
17.4 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 20.5
22.8 Crosses 20.3
2.4 Yellow Cards 3.3
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Juventude
1W-4D-1L
AWAY Botafogo
1.33 Avg Goals (FT) 1.83
0.90 xG 2.21
41% Ball Possession 59%
11 Total Shots 15
3 Shots on Target 6
4 Corners 5
238 Passes 399
76% Pass Accuracy 85%
14 Box Touches 28
19 Crosses 18
3 Yellow Cards 3
22.04.2024 Botafogo Botafogo 5-1 HT 2-0 Juventude Juventude BR1
21.08.2022 Juventude Juventude 2-2 HT 1-0 Botafogo Botafogo BR1
01.05.2022 Botafogo Botafogo 1-1 HT 0-0 Juventude Juventude BR1
12.04.2019 Juventude Juventude 2-1 HT 0-1 Botafogo Botafogo BRK
05.04.2019 Botafogo Botafogo 1-1 HT 0-1 Juventude Juventude BRK
28.10.2007 Juventude Juventude 1-1 HT 0-1 Botafogo Botafogo BR1
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Juventude
3-2
AWAY Botafogo
1.85 xG 1.82
37% Ball Possession 63%
16 Total Shots 24
8 Shots on Target 10
6 Corners 12
247 Passes 483
80% Pass Accuracy 90%
19 Box Touches 55
15 Crosses 33
3 Yellow Cards 5
POST-MATCH Juventude vs Botafogo
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Juventude squeezed past Botafogo 3-2. Half-time: 2-0. 5 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

Our pre-match lean was Botafogo at 42%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way. The goals read — under 2.5 goals (60%), no to both teams scoring (57%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Juventude had 37% of the ball to Botafogo's 63%, shots finished 16-24, expected goals 1.85 to 1.82.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, honours were even at 1 apiece, 4 drawn. Those games averaged 1.33 goals for Juventude and 1.83 for Botafogo.

What was the final score of Juventude vs Botafogo?

Juventude 3-2 Botafogo in the Brazil - Serie A on 11/08/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Juventude vs Botafogo?

Before kick-off our model rated an Botafogo win the most likely single outcome at about 42%, with the full match-result split Juventude 28%, draw 31%, Botafogo 42%. The final score 3-2 went against our main leads this time — single matches are noisy by nature; our accuracy is measured across thousands of predictions, not one result.

✗ Match Result (Botafogo) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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