Flamengo 1-1 Palmeiras — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Brazil - Serie A, 11 Aug 2024

📅11/08/2024 · 🕒22:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 0-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
42%
1.75
Draw
30%
3.45
Away
28%
4.47
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
62%
1.71
Over 2.5
38%
2.03
Both Teams to Score
Yes
42%
1.96
No
58%
1.75
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
34%
2.86
2-3 Goals
41%
1.77
4-5 Goals
16%
4.09
6+ Goals
9%
19.35
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 2.86 — our 34% vs market 29.1%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
15%
2.26
1/2
5%
34.5
1/X
9%
14.85
X/1
21%
3.89
X/2
8%
9.56
X/X
14%
4.44
2/1
6%
26.5
2/2
15%
7.97
2/X
7%
15.8
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
42%
Home Win
54%
-11.5pp
30%
Draw
26%
+3.8pp
28%
Away Win
20%
+7.7pp
62%
Under 2.5
55%
+7.7pp
38%
Over 2.5
45%
-7.7pp
42%
BTTS Yes
47%
-5.1pp
58%
BTTS No
53%
+5.1pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Flamengo EU Bookmakers 57%
Head to Head
AWAY Palmeiras EU Bookmakers 22%
-7% / -15% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -4% / -5%
1.69/1.16 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.07/1.72
+0% / -24% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -5% / -4%
55% Ball Possession 45%
15 Total Shots 10
5 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 4
375 · 82% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 282 · 76%
27.5 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 16.9
20.8 Crosses 18.5
1.8 Yellow Cards 2.4
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Flamengo
2W-2D-2L
AWAY Palmeiras
1.50 Avg Goals (FT) 1.00
1.22 xG 1.01
54% Ball Possession 46%
11 Total Shots 13
5 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 6
369 Passes 297
82% Pass Accuracy 80%
21 Box Touches 18
16 Crosses 22
3 Yellow Cards 2
08.08.2024 Palmeiras Palmeiras 1-0 HT 1-0 Flamengo Flamengo BRK
01.08.2024 Flamengo Flamengo 2-0 HT 0-0 Palmeiras Palmeiras BRK
21.04.2024 Palmeiras Palmeiras 0-0 HT 0-0 Flamengo Flamengo BR1
09.11.2023 Flamengo Flamengo 3-0 HT 2-0 Palmeiras Palmeiras BR1
09.07.2023 Palmeiras Palmeiras 1-1 HT 1-0 Flamengo Flamengo BR1
28.01.2023 Palmeiras Palmeiras 4-3 HT 2-1 Flamengo Flamengo BRSC
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Flamengo
1-1
AWAY Palmeiras
1.00 xG 1.28
52% Ball Possession 48%
11 Total Shots 9
7 Shots on Target 7
4 Corners 2
297 Passes 293
77% Pass Accuracy 80%
16 Box Touches 10
14 Crosses 11
1 Yellow Cards 3
POST-MATCH Flamengo vs Palmeiras
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Flamengo and Palmeiras couldn't be separated, finishing 1-1. Half-time: 0-0.

Our pre-match lean was Flamengo at 42%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way. On goals, under 2.5 goals (62%) landed while no to both teams scoring (58%) missed.

On the day, Flamengo had 52% of the ball to Palmeiras's 48%, shots finished 11-9, expected goals 1.00 to 1.28.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, honours were even at 2 apiece, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 1.50 goals for Flamengo and 1.00 for Palmeiras.

What was the final score of Flamengo vs Palmeiras?

Flamengo 1-1 Palmeiras in the Brazil - Serie A on 11/08/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Flamengo vs Palmeiras?

Before kick-off our model rated a Flamengo win the most likely single outcome at about 42%, with the full match-result split Flamengo 42%, draw 30%, Palmeiras 28%. The final score 1-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Under 2.5 — while Match Result (Flamengo), BTTS No went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Flamengo) ✓ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
Want to know how this prediction was produced? Read how we price a match →
Want to test this kind of bet across 26 seasons yourself? Open Match Studio →
BR1 More Brazil - Serie A
11 Aug 2024
01:00 Cuiaba vs Gremio Analysis →
03:30 Cruzeiro vs Atletico Mineiro Analysis →
03:30 Vasco da Gama vs Fluminense Analysis →
03:30 Corinthians vs Bragantino Analysis →
17:00 Juventude vs Botafogo Analysis →
22:00 Sao Paulo vs Atletico Goianiense Analysis →