Valour 0-3 HFX Wanderers — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Kanada - Premier League, 11 Oct 2025

📅11/10/2025 · 🕒22:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 1-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
43%
2.46
Draw
25%
3.35
Away
32%
2.51
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
53%
1.91
Over 2.5
47%
1.8
Both Teams to Score
Yes
49%
1.68
No
51%
2.06
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
27%
3.27
2-3 Goals
43%
1.75
4-5 Goals
20%
3.29
6+ Goals
10%
12.3
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 3.27 — our 27% vs market 23.8%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
22%
1/2
6%
1/X
7%
X/1
15%
X/2
10%
X/X
12%
2/1
5%
2/2
16%
2/X
7%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
43%
Home Win
37%
+5.7pp
25%
Draw
27%
-1.2pp
32%
Away Win
36%
-4.5pp
53%
Under 2.5
48%
+4.8pp
47%
Over 2.5
52%
-4.8pp
49%
BTTS Yes
56%
-6.2pp
51%
BTTS No
44%
+6.2pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Valour EU Bookmakers 41%
Head to Head
AWAY HFX Wanderers EU Bookmakers 40%
-11% / -11% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +7% / +7%
1.42/1.08 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.35/1.05
-18% / +12% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -6% / +4%
47% Ball Possession 53%
13 Total Shots 11
4 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 4
328 · 79% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 359 · 81%
24.5 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 23.3
21.3 Crosses 18.4
2.3 Yellow Cards 2.8
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Valour
1W-1D-4L
AWAY HFX Wanderers
1.00 Avg Goals (FT) 2.17
0.92 xG 2.26
44% Ball Possession 56%
8 Total Shots 16
3 Shots on Target 7
4 Corners 6
304 Passes 407
81% Pass Accuracy 84%
13 Box Touches 26
16 Crosses 20
3 Yellow Cards 2
23.08.2025 HFX Wanderers HFX Wanderers 4-1 HT 1-0 Valour Valour KAPL
01.07.2025 HFX Wanderers HFX Wanderers 3-1 HT 0-1 Valour Valour KAPL
26.04.2025 Valour Valour 0-1 HT 0-0 HFX Wanderers HFX Wanderers KAPL
21.09.2024 Valour Valour 1-1 HT 0-0 HFX Wanderers HFX Wanderers KAPL
18.08.2024 Valour Valour 2-1 HT 1-1 HFX Wanderers HFX Wanderers KAPL
19.07.2024 HFX Wanderers HFX Wanderers 3-1 HT 2-1 Valour Valour KAPL
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Valour
0-3
AWAY HFX Wanderers
0.91 xG 3.12
65% Ball Possession 35%
13 Total Shots 12
3 Shots on Target 4
7 Corners 1
524 Passes 254
89% Pass Accuracy 81%
30 Box Touches 21
37 Crosses 12
4 Yellow Cards 3
POST-MATCH Valour vs HFX Wanderers
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

HFX Wanderers swept aside Valour 3-0 away from home. Half-time: 0-1.

Our pre-match lean was Valour at 43%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 47% and both teams to score was close to even at 49%.

On the day, Valour had 65% of the ball to HFX Wanderers's 35%, shots finished 13-12, expected goals 0.91 to 3.12.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, HFX Wanderers led the recent series with 4 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.00 goals for Valour and 2.17 for HFX Wanderers.

What was the final score of Valour vs HFX Wanderers?

Valour 0-3 HFX Wanderers in the Kanada - Premier League on 11/10/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Valour vs HFX Wanderers?

Before kick-off our model rated a Valour win the most likely single outcome at about 43%, with the full match-result split Valour 43%, draw 25%, HFX Wanderers 32%. The final score 0-3 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on BTTS No — while Match Result (Valour), Under 2.5 went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Valour) ✗ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS No
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