CD Tapatio 2-3 Leones Negros Udeg — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Mexico - Primera A, 12 Jan 2025

📅12/01/2025 · 🕒21:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 0-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
40%
3.08
Draw
24%
3.28
Away
36%
2.11
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
54%
1.86
Over 2.5
46%
1.86
Both Teams to Score
Yes
44%
1.73
No
56%
1.99
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
28%
2-3 Goals
43%
4-5 Goals
19%
6+ Goals
10%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
20%
1/2
7%
1/X
8%
X/1
12%
X/2
12%
X/X
10%
2/1
8%
2/2
17%
2/X
6%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
40%
Home Win
29%
+10.5pp
24%
Draw
27%
-3.1pp
36%
Away Win
44%
-7.4pp
54%
Under 2.5
50%
+4.1pp
46%
Over 2.5
50%
-4.1pp
44%
BTTS Yes
54%
-10.0pp
56%
BTTS No
46%
+10.0pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME CD Tapatio EU Bookmakers 32%
Head to Head
AWAY Leones Negros Udeg EU Bookmakers 48%
+3% / +0% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +15% / +15%
1.16/1.40 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 2.11/0.84
-3% / -19% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +60% / +44%
46% Ball Possession 54%
10 Total Shots 13
4 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 5
276 · 73% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 384 · 80%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
2.5 Yellow Cards
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME CD Tapatio
1W-3D-2L
AWAY Leones Negros Udeg
1.67 Avg Goals (FT) 1.83
18.11.2024 CD Tapatio CD Tapatio 2-2 HT 2-1 Leones Negros Udeg Leones Negros Udeg MEK2
15.11.2024 Leones Negros Udeg Leones Negros Udeg 2-2 HT 1-2 CD Tapatio CD Tapatio MEK2
27.07.2024 Leones Negros Udeg Leones Negros Udeg 1-1 HT 1-0 CD Tapatio CD Tapatio MEK2
23.02.2024 Leones Negros Udeg Leones Negros Udeg 1-0 HT 1-0 CD Tapatio CD Tapatio MEK2
12.10.2023 CD Tapatio CD Tapatio 2-4 HT 1-3 Leones Negros Udeg Leones Negros Udeg MEK2
13.03.2023 Leones Negros Udeg Leones Negros Udeg 1-3 HT 1-1 CD Tapatio CD Tapatio MEK2
POST-MATCH CD Tapatio vs Leones Negros Udeg
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Leones Negros Udeg nicked a narrow win over CD Tapatio 3-2 away from home. It was 2-1 at half-time, meaning the result turned around in the second half. 5 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

We called this one close before kick-off — 40% / 24% / 36% — and on the day Leones Negros Udeg made the difference. The goals read — no to both teams scoring (56%) — went the other way, though.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Leones Negros Udeg led the recent series with 2 wins, 3 drawn. Those games averaged 1.67 goals for CD Tapatio and 1.83 for Leones Negros Udeg.

What was the final score of CD Tapatio vs Leones Negros Udeg?

CD Tapatio 2-3 Leones Negros Udeg in the Mexico - Primera A on 12/01/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for CD Tapatio vs Leones Negros Udeg?

Before kick-off our model rated a CD Tapatio win the most likely single outcome at about 40%, with the full match-result split CD Tapatio 40%, draw 24%, Leones Negros Udeg 36%. The final score 2-3 went against our main leads this time — single matches are noisy by nature; our accuracy is measured across thousands of predictions, not one result.

✗ Match Result (CD Tapatio) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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