Sao Paulo 2-0 Gremio — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Brazil - Serie A, 12 Feb 2026

📅12/02/2026 · 🕒03:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 0-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
47%
1.9
Draw
30%
3.18
Away
23%
3.71
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
56%
1.71
Over 2.5
44%
2.03
Both Teams to Score
Yes
45%
1.88
No
55%
1.82
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
35%
2.83
2-3 Goals
36%
1.76
4-5 Goals
19%
3.99
6+ Goals
10%
18.45
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 2.83 — our 35% vs market 29.0%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
24%
2.62
1/2
5%
35.0
1/X
6%
13.25
X/1
17%
4.56
X/2
7%
8.35
X/X
19%
4.29
2/1
6%
27.0
2/2
11%
6.72
2/X
5%
14.55
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
47%
Home Win
48%
-1.2pp
29%
Draw
28%
+1.5pp
23%
Away Win
24%
-0.1pp
56%
Under 2.5
55%
+1.9pp
44%
Over 2.5
45%
-1.9pp
45%
BTTS Yes
49%
-3.8pp
55%
BTTS No
51%
+3.8pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Sao Paulo EU Bookmakers 53%
Head to Head
AWAY Gremio EU Bookmakers 27%
+2% / -1% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +0% / +5%
1.36/0.83 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.20/1.55
-5% / +32% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +39% / -19%
56% Ball Possession 44%
14 Total Shots 11
5 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 4
405 · 82% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 297 · 77%
22.4 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 18.5
19.6 Crosses 14.3
2.5 Yellow Cards 2.5
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Sao Paulo
3W-0D-3L
AWAY Gremio
1.33 Avg Goals (FT) 1.17
1.62 xG 1.30
60% Ball Possession 40%
15 Total Shots 13
5 Shots on Target 5
6 Corners 6
444 Passes 274
86% Pass Accuracy 78%
22 Box Touches 20
20 Crosses 13
2 Yellow Cards 3
17.10.2025 Gremio Gremio 2-0 HT 1-0 Sao Paulo Sao Paulo BR1
18.05.2025 Sao Paulo Sao Paulo 2-1 HT 0-1 Gremio Gremio BR1
01.12.2024 Gremio Gremio 2-1 HT 2-0 Sao Paulo Sao Paulo BR1
18.07.2024 Sao Paulo Sao Paulo 1-0 HT 1-0 Gremio Gremio BR1
22.10.2023 Sao Paulo Sao Paulo 3-0 HT 1-0 Gremio Gremio BR1
04.06.2023 Gremio Gremio 2-1 HT 2-1 Sao Paulo Sao Paulo BR1
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Sao Paulo
2-0
AWAY Gremio
4.72 xG 0.32
57% Ball Possession 43%
18 Total Shots 5
4 Shots on Target 1
3 Corners 3
463 Passes 316
90% Pass Accuracy 83%
30 Box Touches 13
18 Crosses 13
3 Yellow Cards 3
POST-MATCH Sao Paulo vs Gremio
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Sao Paulo got the better of Gremio 2-0. Half-time: 1-0.

Just as the model leaned, our model had Sao Paulo as the likeliest winner at 47%, and the 2-0 landed on that lead. The goals side of the card held up too — under 2.5 goals (56%), no to both teams scoring (55%) came in.

On the day, Sao Paulo had 57% of the ball to Gremio's 43%, shots finished 18-5, expected goals 4.72 to 0.32.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, honours were even at 3 apiece. Those games averaged 1.33 goals for Sao Paulo and 1.17 for Gremio.

What was the final score of Sao Paulo vs Gremio?

Sao Paulo 2-0 Gremio in the Brazil - Serie A on 12/02/2026. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Sao Paulo vs Gremio?

Before kick-off our model rated a Sao Paulo win the most likely single outcome at about 47%, with the full match-result split Sao Paulo 47%, draw 29%, Gremio 23%. The final score 2-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Sao Paulo), Under 2.5, BTTS No — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Sao Paulo) ✓ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS No
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