Vasco da Gama 0-1 Bahia — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Brazil - Serie A, 12 Feb 2026

📅12/02/2026 · 🕒03:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-1 2nd Score 1-2
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
50%
2.19
Draw
23%
3.28
Away
27%
2.94
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
44%
1.91
Over 2.5
56%
1.8
Both Teams to Score
Yes
57%
1.66
No
43%
2.09
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
25%
3.43
2-3 Goals
39%
1.8
4-5 Goals
23%
3.37
6+ Goals
13%
12.5
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
25%
3.23
1/2
6%
31.5
1/X
6%
12.45
X/1
17%
5.36
X/2
10%
6.68
X/X
11%
4.69
2/1 EV+ ✗
8%
26.0
2/2
11%
4.56
2/X
6%
12.85
Value flag · 2/1 at 26.0 — our 8% vs market 1.9%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
50%
Home Win
42%
+8.1pp
23%
Draw
27%
-4.3pp
27%
Away Win
31%
-3.9pp
44%
Under 2.5
48%
-4.4pp
56%
Over 2.5
52%
+4.4pp
57%
BTTS Yes
56%
+0.7pp
43%
BTTS No
44%
-0.7pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Vasco da Gama EU Bookmakers 46%
Head to Head
AWAY Bahia EU Bookmakers 34%
+6% / +3% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -4% / -7%
1.47/1.06 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.38/1.70
+19% / +7% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +28% / -32%
49% Ball Possession 51%
13 Total Shots 12
5 Shots on Target 5
5 Corners 5
310 · 80% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 332 · 80%
21.8 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 19.3
23.4 Crosses 16.1
2.3 Yellow Cards 2.4
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Vasco da Gama
2W-1D-3L
AWAY Bahia
1.33 Avg Goals (FT) 1.33
1.39 xG 1.84
50% Ball Possession 50%
12 Total Shots 13
4 Shots on Target 5
3 Corners 6
362 Passes 378
84% Pass Accuracy 84%
18 Box Touches 21
17 Crosses 20
2 Yellow Cards 2
23.11.2025 Bahia Bahia 1-0 HT 0-0 Vasco da Gama Vasco da Gama BR1
25.09.2025 Vasco da Gama Vasco da Gama 3-1 HT 1-1 Bahia Bahia BR1
29.10.2024 Vasco da Gama Vasco da Gama 3-2 HT 3-1 Bahia Bahia BR1
27.06.2024 Bahia Bahia 2-1 HT 1-1 Vasco da Gama Vasco da Gama BR1
04.09.2023 Bahia Bahia 1-1 HT 1-0 Vasco da Gama Vasco da Gama BR1
02.05.2023 Vasco da Gama Vasco da Gama 0-1 HT 0-1 Bahia Bahia BR1
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Vasco da Gama
0-1
AWAY Bahia
1.71 xG 0.37
62% Ball Possession 38%
26 Total Shots 8
4 Shots on Target 3
8 Corners 4
390 Passes 235
84% Pass Accuracy 78%
49 Box Touches 7
44 Crosses 9
5 Yellow Cards 5
FAQ Vasco da Gama vs Bahia
Match summary & frequently asked questions

Bahia edged past Vasco da Gama 1-0 away from home in the Brazil - Serie A on 12 Feb 2026.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 56% and both teams to score was close to even at 57%.

On the day, Vasco da Gama had 62% of the ball to Bahia's 38%, shots finished 26-8, expected goals 1.71 to 0.37.

Across their last 6 meetings in our records, Bahia lead the recent series with 3 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.33 goals for Vasco da Gama and 1.33 for Bahia.

What was the final score of Vasco da Gama vs Bahia?

Vasco da Gama 0-1 Bahia in the Brazil - Serie A on 12/02/2026. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Vasco da Gama vs Bahia?

Before kick-off our model rated a Vasco da Gama win the most likely single outcome at about 50%, with the full match-result split Vasco da Gama 50%, draw 23%, Bahia 27%. The final score 0-1 went against our main leads this time — single matches are noisy by nature; our accuracy is measured across thousands of predictions, not one result.

✗ Match Result (Vasco da Gama) ✗ Over 2.5 ✗ BTTS Yes
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