Bahia 1-1 Vitoria — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Brazil - Serie A, 12 Mar 2026

📅12/03/2026 · 🕒02:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 2-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
58%
1.72
Draw
21%
3.45
Away
21%
4.31
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
51%
1.8
Over 2.5
49%
1.91
Both Teams to Score
Yes
46%
1.88
No
54%
1.82
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
29%
3.02
2-3 Goals
40%
1.74
4-5 Goals
21%
3.6
6+ Goals
10%
15.05
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 3.02 — our 29% vs market 26.4%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
28%
2.21
1/2
4%
34.0
1/X
7%
14.0
X/1
23%
4.19
X/2
7%
9.53
X/X
9%
4.71
2/1
7%
24.35
2/2
10%
7.83
2/X
5%
15.65
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
58%
Home Win
54%
+3.5pp
21%
Draw
26%
-4.9pp
22%
Away Win
20%
+1.4pp
51%
Under 2.5
52%
-0.2pp
49%
Over 2.5
48%
+0.2pp
46%
BTTS Yes
49%
-3.2pp
54%
BTTS No
51%
+3.2pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Bahia EU Bookmakers 58%
Head to Head
AWAY Vitoria EU Bookmakers 23%
-1% / +6% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +3% / -5%
1.74/0.99 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.85/1.13
+1% / +5% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -8% / -16%
55% Ball Possession 45%
16 Total Shots 9
7 Shots on Target 3
6 Corners 3
396 · 83% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 304 · 78%
28.7 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 15.3
21.4 Crosses 17.9
1.9 Yellow Cards 3.4
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Bahia
3W-2D-1L
AWAY Vitoria
1.50 Avg Goals (FT) 1.00
1.10 xG 1.88
58% Ball Possession 42%
12 Total Shots 14
4 Shots on Target 5
4 Corners 5
391 Passes 278
86% Pass Accuracy 82%
17 Box Touches 16
13 Crosses 22
3 Yellow Cards 4
17.10.2025 Vitoria Vitoria 2-1 HT 1-1 Bahia Bahia BR1
18.05.2025 Bahia Bahia 2-1 HT 1-0 Vitoria Vitoria BR1
11.08.2024 Bahia Bahia 2-0 HT 1-0 Vitoria Vitoria BR1
21.04.2024 Vitoria Vitoria 2-2 HT 1-0 Bahia Bahia BR1
05.03.2023 Bahia Bahia 1-1 HT 1-1 Vitoria Vitoria BRCDN
29.01.2023 Bahia Bahia 1-0 HT 1-0 Vitoria Vitoria BRB1
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Bahia
1-1
AWAY Vitoria
1.95 xG 0.47
63% Ball Possession 37%
13 Total Shots 6
7 Shots on Target 2
7 Corners 3
426 Passes 231
89% Pass Accuracy 81%
22 Box Touches 7
19 Crosses 9
1 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH Bahia vs Vitoria
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Bahia and Vitoria couldn't be separated, finishing 1-1.

By our pre-match numbers this was an upset: we had Bahia at 58% and the game still went the other way. Single results are noisy — probabilities earn their keep across thousands of matches, not one.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 49% and both teams to score was close to even at 46%.

On the day, Bahia had 63% of the ball to Vitoria's 37%, shots finished 13-6, expected goals 1.95 to 0.47.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Bahia had the better of it with 3 wins, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 1.50 goals for Bahia and 1.00 for Vitoria.

What was the final score of Bahia vs Vitoria?

Bahia 1-1 Vitoria in the Brazil - Serie A on 12/03/2026. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Bahia vs Vitoria?

Before kick-off our model rated a Bahia win the most likely single outcome at about 58%, with the full match-result split Bahia 58%, draw 21%, Vitoria 22%. The final score 1-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Under 2.5 — while Match Result (Bahia), BTTS No went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Bahia) ✓ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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