Hegelmann Litauen 3-2 FK Dainava Alytus — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Lithuania - 1st Division, 12 Apr 2025

📅12/04/2025 · 🕒18:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-0 2nd Score 1-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
64%
1.43
Draw
21%
4.08
Away
15%
6.38
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
56%
1.8
Over 2.5
44%
1.91
Both Teams to Score
Yes
42%
2.16
No
58%
1.61
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
28%
2-3 Goals
44%
4-5 Goals
20%
6+ Goals
8%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
42%
1/2
4%
1/X
4%
X/1
19%
X/2
4%
X/X
8%
2/1
3%
2/2
8%
2/X
8%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
64%
Home Win
66%
-1.7pp
21%
Draw
21%
-0.7pp
15%
Away Win
13%
+2.4pp
56%
Under 2.5
52%
+4.2pp
44%
Over 2.5
48%
-4.2pp
42%
BTTS Yes
42%
+0.3pp
58%
BTTS No
58%
-0.3pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Hegelmann Litauen EU Bookmakers 70%
Head to Head
AWAY FK Dainava Alytus EU Bookmakers 16%
+17% / +17% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +5% / +8%
1.79/0.51 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.95/1.72
+38% / +61% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +43% / +9%
56% Ball Possession 44%
14 Total Shots 8
6 Shots on Target 3
6 Corners 3
401 · 82% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 287 · 76%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
2.8 Yellow Cards 2.4
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Hegelmann Litauen
3W-1D-2L
AWAY FK Dainava Alytus
1.00 Avg Goals (FT) 0.67
61% Ball Possession 39%
14 Total Shots 7
4 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 4
0 Yellow Cards 2
25.10.2024 Hegelmann Litauen Hegelmann Litauen 1-2 HT 1-0 FK Dainava Alytus FK Dainava Alytus LITA
03.08.2024 FK Dainava Alytus FK Dainava Alytus 0-1 HT 0-0 Hegelmann Litauen Hegelmann Litauen LITA
31.05.2024 FK Dainava Alytus FK Dainava Alytus 0-2 HT 0-1 Hegelmann Litauen Hegelmann Litauen LIT1
09.04.2024 Hegelmann Litauen Hegelmann Litauen 0-1 HT 0-0 FK Dainava Alytus FK Dainava Alytus LIT1
26.08.2023 FK Dainava Alytus FK Dainava Alytus 1-2 HT 0-0 Hegelmann Litauen Hegelmann Litauen LIT1
24.06.2023 Hegelmann Litauen Hegelmann Litauen 0-0 HT 0-0 FK Dainava Alytus FK Dainava Alytus LITA
POST-MATCH Hegelmann Litauen vs FK Dainava Alytus
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Hegelmann Litauen squeezed past FK Dainava Alytus 3-2. It was 0-2 at half-time, meaning the result turned around in the second half. 5 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

As we highlighted before kick-off, our model had Hegelmann Litauen as the likeliest winner at 64%, and the 3-2 landed on that lead. The goals read — under 2.5 goals (56%), no to both teams scoring (58%) — went the other way, though.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Hegelmann Litauen had the better of it with 3 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.00 goals for Hegelmann Litauen and 0.67 for FK Dainava Alytus.

What was the final score of Hegelmann Litauen vs FK Dainava Alytus?

Hegelmann Litauen 3-2 FK Dainava Alytus in the Lithuania - 1st Division on 12/04/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Hegelmann Litauen vs FK Dainava Alytus?

Before kick-off our model rated a Hegelmann Litauen win the most likely single outcome at about 64%, with the full match-result split Hegelmann Litauen 64%, draw 21%, FK Dainava Alytus 15%. The final score 3-2 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Hegelmann Litauen) — while Under 2.5, BTTS No went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Hegelmann Litauen) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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