Deportivo Cuenca 2-3 Independiente Del Valle — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Ecuador - Premier, 12 Apr 2026

📅12/04/2026 · 🕒21:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 0-1 2nd Score 1-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
30%
2.94
Draw
25%
3.11
Away
45%
2.24
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
52%
1.64
Over 2.5
48%
2.15
Both Teams to Score
Yes
50%
1.9
No
50%
1.81
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
31%
2-3 Goals
39%
4-5 Goals
21%
6+ Goals
9%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
13%
1/2
6%
1/X
7%
X/1
9%
X/2
16%
X/X
11%
2/1
9%
2/2
22%
2/X
7%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
30%
Home Win
30%
-0.3pp
25%
Draw
29%
-3.4pp
44%
Away Win
41%
+3.7pp
52%
Under 2.5
57%
-4.7pp
48%
Over 2.5
43%
+4.7pp
50%
BTTS Yes
49%
+0.8pp
50%
BTTS No
51%
-0.8pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Deportivo Cuenca EU Bookmakers 34%
Head to Head
AWAY Independiente Del Valle EU Bookmakers 45%
+4% / -2% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -1% / +24%
1.23/1.16 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.21/1.21
+17% / -10% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +19% / -10%
48% Ball Possession 52%
12 Total Shots 13
4 Shots on Target 5
5 Corners 4
279 · 77% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 341 · 80%
16.6 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 17.4
20.3 Crosses 15.8
2.5 Yellow Cards 2.8
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Deportivo Cuenca
0W-0D-6L
AWAY Independiente Del Valle
0.17 Avg Goals (FT) 2.33
0.64 xG 1.66
42% Ball Possession 58%
8 Total Shots 17
2 Shots on Target 7
4 Corners 4
277 Passes 425
80% Pass Accuracy 87%
8 Box Touches 21
16 Crosses 15
1 Yellow Cards 2
28.07.2025 Deportivo Cuenca Deportivo Cuenca 0-3 HT 0-1 Independiente Del Valle Independiente Del Valle EKV1
06.04.2025 Independiente Del Valle Independiente Del Valle 4-0 HT 2-0 Deportivo Cuenca Deportivo Cuenca EKV1
25.10.2024 Deportivo Cuenca Deportivo Cuenca 0-2 HT 0-1 Independiente Del Valle Independiente Del Valle EKV1
05.05.2024 Independiente Del Valle Independiente Del Valle 1-0 HT 0-0 Deportivo Cuenca Deportivo Cuenca EKV1
28.10.2023 Independiente Del Valle Independiente Del Valle 2-0 HT 1-0 Deportivo Cuenca Deportivo Cuenca EKV1
20.05.2023 Deportivo Cuenca Deportivo Cuenca 1-2 HT 0-1 Independiente Del Valle Independiente Del Valle EKV1
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Deportivo Cuenca
2-3
AWAY Independiente Del Valle
45% Ball Possession 55%
11 Total Shots 17
4 Shots on Target 7
3 Corners 9
POST-MATCH Deportivo Cuenca vs Independiente Del Valle
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Independiente Del Valle nicked a narrow win over Deportivo Cuenca 3-2 away from home. It was 1-0 at half-time, meaning the result turned around in the second half. 5 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

As we said in the preview, our model had Independiente Del Valle as the likeliest winner at 44%, and the 3-2 landed on that lead.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 48% and both teams to score was close to even at 50%.

On the day, Deportivo Cuenca had 45% of the ball to Independiente Del Valle's 55%, shots finished 11-17.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Independiente Del Valle led the recent series with 6 wins. Those games averaged 0.17 goals for Deportivo Cuenca and 2.33 for Independiente Del Valle.

What was the final score of Deportivo Cuenca vs Independiente Del Valle?

Deportivo Cuenca 2-3 Independiente Del Valle in the Ecuador - Premier on 12/04/2026. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Deportivo Cuenca vs Independiente Del Valle?

Before kick-off our model rated an Independiente Del Valle win the most likely single outcome at about 44%, with the full match-result split Deportivo Cuenca 30%, draw 25%, Independiente Del Valle 44%. The final score 2-3 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Independiente Del Valle) — while Under 2.5 went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Independiente Del Valle) ✗ Under 2.5
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