Orense 2-1 Libertad — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Ecuador - Premier, 12 Apr 2026

📅12/04/2026 · 🕒03:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 2nd Score 1-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
49%
1.86
Draw
28%
3.45
Away
23%
3.63
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
53%
1.91
Over 2.5
47%
1.8
Both Teams to Score
Yes
54%
1.73
No
46%
1.99
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
29%
2-3 Goals
40%
4-5 Goals
21%
6+ Goals
10%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
23%
1/2
5%
1/X
6%
X/1
15%
X/2
9%
X/X
13%
2/1
11%
2/2
8%
2/X
10%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
49%
Home Win
50%
-1.2pp
28%
Draw
26%
+2.4pp
23%
Away Win
24%
-1.2pp
53%
Under 2.5
48%
+5.1pp
47%
Over 2.5
52%
-5.1pp
54%
BTTS Yes
54%
+0.2pp
46%
BTTS No
46%
-0.2pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Orense EU Bookmakers 54%
Head to Head
AWAY Libertad EU Bookmakers 28%
-3% / +3% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -7% / +0%
1.40/0.94 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.05/1.76
-4% / +7% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +3% / -5%
55% Ball Possession 45%
14 Total Shots 11
5 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 4
300 · 78% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 230 · 73%
25.4 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 18.6
20.1 Crosses 15.7
2.3 Yellow Cards 2.2
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Orense
2W-1D-3L
AWAY Libertad
1.00 Avg Goals (FT) 1.67
1.85 xG 1.71
53% Ball Possession 47%
18 Total Shots 12
7 Shots on Target 4
7 Corners 4
298 Passes 248
80% Pass Accuracy 75%
32 Box Touches 22
23 Crosses 16
1 Yellow Cards 2
22.12.2025 Orense Orense 3-2 HT 0-2 Libertad Libertad EKV1
05.10.2025 Libertad Libertad 2-0 HT 1-0 Orense Orense EKV1
13.07.2025 Orense Orense 0-1 HT 0-1 Libertad Libertad EKV1
15.03.2025 Libertad Libertad 4-1 HT 1-0 Orense Orense EKV1
19.10.2024 Orense Orense 1-0 HT 0-0 Libertad Libertad EKV1
27.04.2024 Libertad Libertad 1-1 HT 0-0 Orense Orense EKV1
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Orense
2-1
AWAY Libertad
1.37 xG 0.57
69% Ball Possession 31%
14 Total Shots 6
6 Shots on Target 2
5 Corners 3
576 Passes 204
89% Pass Accuracy 72%
30 Box Touches 5
28 Crosses 6
2 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Orense vs Libertad
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Orense nicked a narrow win over Libertad 2-1. Half-time: 1-0.

As we highlighted before kick-off, our model had Orense as the likeliest winner at 49%, and the 2-1 landed on that lead.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 47% and both teams to score was close to even at 54%.

On the day, Orense had 69% of the ball to Libertad's 31%, shots finished 14-6, expected goals 1.37 to 0.57.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Libertad led the recent series with 3 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.00 goals for Orense and 1.67 for Libertad.

What was the final score of Orense vs Libertad?

Orense 2-1 Libertad in the Ecuador - Premier on 12/04/2026. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Orense vs Libertad?

Before kick-off our model rated a Orense win the most likely single outcome at about 49%, with the full match-result split Orense 49%, draw 28%, Libertad 23%. The final score 2-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Orense), BTTS Yes — while Under 2.5 went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Orense) ✗ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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