Venados 2-1 Leones Negros Udeg — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Mexico - Primera A, 12 Apr 2026

📅12/04/2026 · 🕒04:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-1 2nd Score 3-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
54%
1.75
Draw
18%
3.72
Away
28%
3.83
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
41%
2.23
Over 2.5
59%
1.59
Both Teams to Score
Yes
56%
1.6
No
44%
2.19
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
21%
2-3 Goals
41%
4-5 Goals
28%
6+ Goals
10%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
30%
1/2
7%
1/X
4%
X/1
14%
X/2
6%
X/X
7%
2/1
10%
2/2
14%
2/X
8%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
54%
Home Win
53%
+0.4pp
19%
Draw
24%
-5.1pp
28%
Away Win
23%
+4.7pp
41%
Under 2.5
41%
-0.4pp
59%
Over 2.5
59%
+0.4pp
56%
BTTS Yes
58%
-2.4pp
44%
BTTS No
42%
+2.4pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Venados EU Bookmakers 57%
Head to Head
AWAY Leones Negros Udeg EU Bookmakers 26%
-2% / -11% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +3% / -5%
2.27/1.42 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.98/1.53
+26% / -35% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -5% / -2%
55% Ball Possession 45%
16 Total Shots 9
7 Shots on Target 3
6 Corners 4
360 · 82% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 298 · 79%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
1.5 Yellow Cards 2.1
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Venados
1W-2D-3L
AWAY Leones Negros Udeg
1.17 Avg Goals (FT) 1.67
51% Ball Possession 49%
11 Total Shots 11
6 Shots on Target 3
6 Corners 4
4 Yellow Cards 2
02.11.2025 Leones Negros Udeg Leones Negros Udeg 1-0 HT 0-0 Venados Venados MEK2
19.04.2025 Leones Negros Udeg Leones Negros Udeg 3-1 HT 1-1 Venados Venados MEK2
02.11.2024 Venados Venados 3-0 HT 1-0 Leones Negros Udeg Leones Negros Udeg MEK2
25.01.2024 Venados Venados 1-1 HT 1-1 Leones Negros Udeg Leones Negros Udeg MEK2
18.08.2023 Leones Negros Udeg Leones Negros Udeg 4-1 HT 2-0 Venados Venados MEK2
05.04.2023 Venados Venados 1-1 HT 0-1 Leones Negros Udeg Leones Negros Udeg MEK2
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Venados
2-1
AWAY Leones Negros Udeg
64% Ball Possession 36%
20 Total Shots 11
10 Shots on Target 1
8 Corners 3
2 Yellow Cards 4
POST-MATCH Venados vs Leones Negros Udeg
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Venados squeezed past Leones Negros Udeg 2-1. It was 0-1 at half-time, meaning the result turned around in the second half.

Just as the model leaned, our model had Venados as the likeliest winner at 54%, and the 2-1 landed on that lead. The goals side of the card held up too — over 2.5 goals (59%), both teams to score (56%) came in.

On the day, Venados had 64% of the ball to Leones Negros Udeg's 36%, shots finished 20-11.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Leones Negros Udeg led the recent series with 3 wins, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 1.17 goals for Venados and 1.67 for Leones Negros Udeg.

What was the final score of Venados vs Leones Negros Udeg?

Venados 2-1 Leones Negros Udeg in the Mexico - Primera A on 12/04/2026. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Venados vs Leones Negros Udeg?

Before kick-off our model rated a Venados win the most likely single outcome at about 54%, with the full match-result split Venados 54%, draw 19%, Leones Negros Udeg 28%. The final score 2-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Venados), Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Venados) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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