De Graafschap 1-1 Willem II — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Netherlands - Eerste Divisie, 12 Sep 2025

📅12/09/2025 · 🕒21:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-1 2nd Score 2-2
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
45%
2.0
Draw
23%
3.64
Away
32%
3.02
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
45%
2.29
Over 2.5
55%
1.56
Both Teams to Score
Yes
54%
1.5
No
46%
2.4
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
24%
4.39
2-3 Goals
36%
1.85
4-5 Goals
29%
2.68
6+ Goals
11%
7.29
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
20%
2.75
1/2
5%
28.5
1/X
8%
12.55
X/1
16%
5.07
X/2
9%
7.06
X/X
8%
5.63
2/1 EV+ ✗
9%
21.3
2/2
18%
4.58
2/X
7%
13.05
Value flag · 2/1 at 21.3 — our 9% vs market 2.4%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
45%
Home Win
46%
-1.3pp
23%
Draw
24%
-1.3pp
32%
Away Win
30%
+2.6pp
45%
Under 2.5
40%
+5.4pp
55%
Over 2.5
60%
-5.4pp
54%
BTTS Yes
62%
-8.3pp
46%
BTTS No
38%
+8.3pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME De Graafschap EU Bookmakers 50%
Head to Head
AWAY Willem II EU Bookmakers 33%
+0% / +8% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +2% / -1%
1.51/1.02 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.36/1.08
-5% / +7% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -16% / +2%
57% Ball Possession 43%
15 Total Shots 12
5 Shots on Target 5
7 Corners 5
384 · 81% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 267 · 74%
27.2 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 19.8
24.2 Crosses 20.6
1.7 Yellow Cards 2.3
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME De Graafschap
1W-0D-5L
AWAY Willem II
1.33 Avg Goals (FT) 2.67
1.50 xG 1.55
59% Ball Possession 42%
13 Total Shots 12
4 Shots on Target 5
6 Corners 4
380 Passes 247
79% Pass Accuracy 72%
17 Box Touches 19
23 Crosses 14
2 Yellow Cards 2
09.02.2024 De Graafschap De Graafschap 0-2 HT 0-1 Willem II Willem II HOL2
06.10.2023 Willem II Willem II 4-2 HT 1-1 De Graafschap De Graafschap HOL2
29.04.2023 Willem II Willem II 3-2 HT 1-0 De Graafschap De Graafschap HOL2
16.12.2022 De Graafschap De Graafschap 0-3 HT 0-1 Willem II Willem II HOL2
09.03.2019 Willem II Willem II 3-2 HT 2-1 De Graafschap De Graafschap HOL
30.09.2018 De Graafschap De Graafschap 2-1 HT 1-0 Willem II Willem II HOL
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME De Graafschap
1-1
AWAY Willem II
1.61 xG 0.80
62% Ball Possession 38%
29 Total Shots 11
10 Shots on Target 4
10 Corners 4
397 Passes 207
85% Pass Accuracy 74%
34 Box Touches 14
26 Crosses 18
2 Yellow Cards 3
POST-MATCH De Graafschap vs Willem II
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

De Graafschap and Willem II shared the points in a 1-1 draw.

Our pre-match lean was De Graafschap at 45%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way. The goals read — over 2.5 goals (55%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, De Graafschap had 62% of the ball to Willem II's 38%, shots finished 29-11, expected goals 1.61 to 0.80.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Willem II led the recent series with 5 wins. Those games averaged 1.33 goals for De Graafschap and 2.67 for Willem II.

What was the final score of De Graafschap vs Willem II?

De Graafschap 1-1 Willem II in the Netherlands - Eerste Divisie on 12/09/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for De Graafschap vs Willem II?

Before kick-off our model rated a De Graafschap win the most likely single outcome at about 45%, with the full match-result split De Graafschap 45%, draw 23%, Willem II 32%. The final score 1-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on BTTS Yes — while Match Result (De Graafschap), Over 2.5 went the other way.

✗ Match Result (De Graafschap) ✗ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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