AZ Alkmaar II 4-0 Vitesse — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Netherlands - Eerste Divisie, 12 Sep 2025

📅12/09/2025 · 🕒21:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-1 2nd Score 3-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
69%
1.27
Draw
15%
5.28
Away
16%
7.37
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
39%
2.96
Over 2.5
61%
1.36
Both Teams to Score
Yes
56%
1.73
No
44%
1.99
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
19%
6.48
2-3 Goals
39%
2.11
4-5 Goals
27%
2.34
6+ Goals
15%
4.48
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
41%
1.38
1/2
5%
34.5
1/X
5%
21.35
X/1
18%
3.95
X/2
6%
20.95
X/X
5%
9.85
2/1 EV+ ✗
9%
18.9
2/2
6%
16.4
2/X
5%
24.5
Value flag · 2/1 at 18.9 — our 9% vs market 2.6%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
💡 For the risk lovers: Home Win ★★ — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
69%
Home Win
74%
-5.2pp
15%
Draw
16%
-0.3pp
16%
Away Win
10%
+5.5pp
39%
Under 2.5
30%
+9.2pp
61%
Over 2.5
70%
-9.2pp
56%
BTTS Yes
54%
+2.4pp
44%
BTTS No
46%
-2.4pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME AZ Alkmaar II EU Bookmakers 79%
Head to Head
AWAY Vitesse EU Bookmakers 14%
-17% / -17% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +2% / +2%
1.33/1.09 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.18/2.03
-17% / -19% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -13% / +0%
56% Ball Possession 44%
16 Total Shots 10
7 Shots on Target 4
7 Corners 4
419 · 83% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 268 · 75%
28.4 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 21.8
9.8 Crosses 25.5
1.6 Yellow Cards 2.1
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME AZ Alkmaar II
0W-1D-1L
AWAY Vitesse
1.00 Avg Goals (FT) 1.50
1.25 xG 0.96
58% Ball Possession 42%
12 Total Shots 10
8 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 4
390 Passes 255
82% Pass Accuracy 77%
22 Box Touches 16
8 Crosses 14
2 Yellow Cards 2
04.04.2025 Vitesse Vitesse 2-2 HT 2-0 AZ Alkmaar II AZ Alkmaar II HOL2
13.09.2024 AZ Alkmaar II AZ Alkmaar II 0-1 HT 0-0 Vitesse Vitesse HOL2
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME AZ Alkmaar II
4-0
AWAY Vitesse
1.86 xG 0.58
65% Ball Possession 35%
19 Total Shots 7
9 Shots on Target 1
5 Corners 5
544 Passes 259
91% Pass Accuracy 82%
21 Box Touches 18
12 Crosses 16
3 Yellow Cards 4
POST-MATCH AZ Alkmaar II vs Vitesse
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

AZ Alkmaar II ran out comfortable winners over Vitesse 4-0. Half-time: 1-0.

As our pre-match numbers suggested, our model had AZ Alkmaar II as the likeliest winner at 69%, and the 4-0 landed on that lead. On goals, over 2.5 goals (61%) landed while both teams to score (56%) missed.

On the day, AZ Alkmaar II had 65% of the ball to Vitesse's 35%, shots finished 19-7, expected goals 1.86 to 0.58.

For context: across their last 2 meetings in our records, Vitesse led the recent series with 1 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.00 goals for AZ Alkmaar II and 1.50 for Vitesse.

What was the final score of AZ Alkmaar II vs Vitesse?

AZ Alkmaar II 4-0 Vitesse in the Netherlands - Eerste Divisie on 12/09/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for AZ Alkmaar II vs Vitesse?

Before kick-off our model rated a AZ Alkmaar II win the most likely single outcome at about 69%, with the full match-result split AZ Alkmaar II 69%, draw 15%, Vitesse 16%. The final score 4-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (AZ Alkmaar II), Over 2.5 — while BTTS Yes went the other way.

✓ Match Result (AZ Alkmaar II) ✓ Over 2.5 ✗ BTTS Yes
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