Roda 3-3 Ajax II — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Netherlands - Eerste Divisie, 12 Sep 2025

Roda
3-3 HT 1-2
Ajax II
📅12/09/2025 · 🕒21:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-1 2nd Score 2-2
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
50%
1.75
Draw
26%
3.72
Away
24%
3.71
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
45%
2.23
Over 2.5
55%
1.59
Both Teams to Score
Yes
59%
1.6
No
41%
2.19
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
22%
4.3
2-3 Goals
40%
1.83
4-5 Goals
27%
2.71
6+ Goals
11%
7.51
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
27%
2.21
1/2
8%
34.5
1/X
10%
13.45
X/1
15%
4.45
X/2
8%
8.86
X/X
9%
5.9
2/1
8%
20.1
2/2
8%
6.33
2/X
7%
14.6
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
50%
Home Win
53%
-3.3pp
26%
Draw
24%
+2.6pp
24%
Away Win
24%
+0.6pp
45%
Under 2.5
41%
+3.6pp
55%
Over 2.5
59%
-3.6pp
59%
BTTS Yes
58%
+1.0pp
41%
BTTS No
42%
-1.0pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Roda EU Bookmakers 57%
Head to Head
AWAY Ajax II EU Bookmakers 27%
-6% / -28% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -2% / -9%
1.49/1.01 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.40/1.55
-25% / -2% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +5% / -10%
51% Ball Possession 49%
14 Total Shots 10
6 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 4
350 · 80% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 314 · 77%
24.5 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 25.4
20.3 Crosses 12.2
1.7 Yellow Cards 1.8
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Roda
4W-1D-1L
AWAY Ajax II
1.50 Avg Goals (FT) 1.17
1.68 xG 0.91
46% Ball Possession 54%
17 Total Shots 12
7 Shots on Target 6
6 Corners 4
305 Passes 384
76% Pass Accuracy 81%
30 Box Touches 19
20 Crosses 10
1 Yellow Cards 1
23.12.2024 Ajax II Ajax II 3-1 HT 2-1 Roda Roda HOL2
25.10.2024 Roda Roda 2-1 HT 1-0 Ajax II Ajax II HOL2
26.04.2024 Ajax II Ajax II 1-1 HT 1-1 Roda Roda HOL2
27.10.2023 Roda Roda 2-1 HT 1-1 Ajax II Ajax II HOL2
23.01.2023 Ajax II Ajax II 1-2 HT 1-2 Roda Roda HOL2
12.08.2022 Roda Roda 1-0 HT 0-0 Ajax II Ajax II HOL2
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Roda
3-3
AWAY Ajax II
2.60 xG 1.79
41% Ball Possession 59%
17 Total Shots 21
7 Shots on Target 8
5 Corners 6
292 Passes 468
81% Pass Accuracy 88%
26 Box Touches 38
16 Crosses 13
3 Yellow Cards 3
POST-MATCH Roda vs Ajax II
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Roda and Ajax II couldn't be separated, finishing 3-3. Half-time: 1-2. 6 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

Our pre-match lean was Roda at 50%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way. We had also flagged over 2.5 goals (55%), both teams to score (59%), and both reads landed as well.

On the day, Roda had 41% of the ball to Ajax II's 59%, shots finished 17-21, expected goals 2.60 to 1.79.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Roda had the better of it with 4 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.50 goals for Roda and 1.17 for Ajax II.

What was the final score of Roda vs Ajax II?

Roda 3-3 Ajax II in the Netherlands - Eerste Divisie on 12/09/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Roda vs Ajax II?

Before kick-off our model rated a Roda win the most likely single outcome at about 50%, with the full match-result split Roda 50%, draw 26%, Ajax II 24%. The final score 3-3 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — while Match Result (Roda) went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Roda) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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