Orange County SC vs Sacramento Republic Prediction — Model Probabilities
The bookmaker priced every market fairly — no dependable value at these odds, so skipping is the disciplined play.
Our Pick is our best estimate of the outcome; a value flag is a separate, rarer judgement about the price.
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
Orange County SC v Sacramento Republic — Team-Based Signals
Orange County SC vs Sacramento Republic Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings
0-2
HT 0-0
Orange County SC
USLP
1-0
HT 1-0
Sacramento Republic
USLP
4-0
HT 4-0
Orange County SC
USLP
1-1
HT 1-1
Sacramento Republic
USLP
Orange County SC 2-1 Sacramento Republic — Actual Match Statistics
Orange County SC squeezed past Sacramento Republic 2-1. Half-time: 1-0.
We called this one close before kick-off — 32% / 29% / 39% — and on the day Orange County SC made the difference.
Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 48% and both teams to score was close to even at 48%.
On the day, Orange County SC had 41% of the ball to Sacramento Republic's 59%, shots finished 12-17, expected goals 2.06 to 1.59.
For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, honours were even at 2 apiece, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 1.00 goals for Orange County SC and 1.50 for Sacramento Republic.
What was the final score of Orange County SC vs Sacramento Republic?
Orange County SC 2-1 Sacramento Republic in the USL Championship on 13/04/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.
What did the model predict for Orange County SC vs Sacramento Republic?
Before kick-off our model rated an Sacramento Republic win the most likely single outcome at about 39%, with the full match-result split Orange County SC 32%, draw 29%, Sacramento Republic 39%. The final score 2-1 went against our main leads this time — single matches are noisy by nature; our accuracy is measured across thousands of predictions, not one result.