Aarau vs Vaduz Prediction — Model Probabilities
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
Aarau v Vaduz — Team-Based Signals
Aarau vs Vaduz Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings
Aarau 1-0 Vaduz — Actual Match Statistics
Aarau squeezed past Vaduz 1-0.
As our pre-match numbers suggested, our model had Aarau as the likeliest winner at 52%, and the 1-0 landed on that lead. The goals read — over 2.5 goals (60%), both teams to score (59%) — went the other way, though.
On the day, Aarau had 30% of the ball to Vaduz's 70%, shots finished 16-10, expected goals 2.13 to 0.86 — an xG gap that size says the one-goal margin undersold Aarau's control.
For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Aarau had the better of it with 3 wins, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 1.67 goals for Aarau and 1.00 for Vaduz.
What was the final score of Aarau vs Vaduz?
Aarau 1-0 Vaduz in the Switzerland Challenge League on 13/09/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.
What did the model predict for Aarau vs Vaduz?
Before kick-off our model rated a Aarau win the most likely single outcome at about 52%, with the full match-result split Aarau 52%, draw 20%, Vaduz 27%. The final score 1-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Aarau) — while Over 2.5, BTTS Yes went the other way.