Aarau 2-2 Vaduz — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Switzerland Challenge League, 18 Apr 2025

Aarau
2-2 HT 0-1
Vaduz
📅18/04/2025 · 🕒21:15 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 2nd Score 1-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
46%
1.61
Draw
29%
3.94
Away
25%
4.31
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
52%
2.29
Over 2.5
48%
1.56
Both Teams to Score
Yes
51%
1.63
No
49%
2.13
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
26%
4.43
2-3 Goals
40%
1.88
4-5 Goals
21%
2.77
6+ Goals
13%
7.61
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 4.43 — our 26% vs market 16.9%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
19%
1/2
8%
1/X
7%
X/1
19%
X/2
7%
X/X
14%
2/1
8%
2/2
10%
2/X
8%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
💡 For the risk lovers: Home Win ★★★ — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
46%
Home Win
58%
-12.4pp
29%
Draw
22%
+6.9pp
25%
Away Win
20%
+5.4pp
52%
Under 2.5
40%
+11.9pp
48%
Over 2.5
60%
-11.9pp
51%
BTTS Yes
57%
-6.6pp
49%
BTTS No
43%
+6.6pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Aarau EU Bookmakers 62%
Head to Head
AWAY Vaduz EU Bookmakers 23%
-3% / -1% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +7% / +6%
1.85/1.27 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.00/1.28
-10% / +5% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +9% / +20%
56% Ball Possession 44%
15 Total Shots 11
5 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 4
384 · 80% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 259 · 71%
28.0 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 15.9
15.3 Crosses 14.9
1.9 Yellow Cards 2.7
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Aarau
3W-2D-1L
AWAY Vaduz
1.67 Avg Goals (FT) 1.00
1.66 xG 1.23
51% Ball Possession 49%
15 Total Shots 11
4 Shots on Target 2
5 Corners 4
322 Passes 292
78% Pass Accuracy 75%
28 Box Touches 17
16 Crosses 16
2 Yellow Cards 3
23.02.2025 Vaduz Vaduz 0-1 HT 0-1 Aarau Aarau İSV2
05.10.2024 Aarau Aarau 0-0 HT 0-0 Vaduz Vaduz İSV2
20.09.2024 Vaduz Vaduz 2-5 HT 2-3 Aarau Aarau İSV2
03.05.2024 Vaduz Vaduz 2-1 HT 0-0 Aarau Aarau İSV2
26.01.2024 Aarau Aarau 1-0 HT 0-0 Vaduz Vaduz İSV2
22.10.2023 Vaduz Vaduz 2-2 HT 1-2 Aarau Aarau İSV2
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Aarau
2-2
AWAY Vaduz
1.60 xG 2.13
53% Ball Possession 47%
14 Total Shots 17
4 Shots on Target 4
2 Corners 6
311 Passes 248
76% Pass Accuracy 70%
44 Box Touches 26
9 Crosses 19
4 Yellow Cards 4
POST-MATCH Aarau vs Vaduz
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Aarau and Vaduz shared the points in a 2-2 draw. Half-time: 0-1.

Our pre-match lean was Aarau at 46%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 48% and both teams to score was close to even at 51%.

On the day, Aarau had 53% of the ball to Vaduz's 47%, shots finished 14-17, expected goals 1.60 to 2.13.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Aarau had the better of it with 3 wins, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 1.67 goals for Aarau and 1.00 for Vaduz.

What was the final score of Aarau vs Vaduz?

Aarau 2-2 Vaduz in the Switzerland Challenge League on 18/04/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Aarau vs Vaduz?

Before kick-off our model rated a Aarau win the most likely single outcome at about 46%, with the full match-result split Aarau 46%, draw 29%, Vaduz 25%. The final score 2-2 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on BTTS Yes — while Match Result (Aarau), Under 2.5 went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Aarau) ✗ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
Want to know how this prediction was produced? Read how we price a match →
Want to test this kind of bet across 26 seasons yourself? Open Match Studio →
İSV2 More Switzerland Challenge League
18 Apr 2025
20:30 Bellinzona vs Stade Nyonnais Analysis →
20:30 Stade Ouchy vs Neuchatel Xamax Analysis →
21:15 Etoile Carouge vs FC Schaffhausen Analysis →