St. Gallen 1-0 Lugano — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Switzerland - Super League, 13 Sep 2025

📅13/09/2025 · 🕒21:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 2nd Score 2-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
44%
2.27
Draw
25%
3.28
Away
31%
2.69
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
48%
1.91
Over 2.5
52%
1.8
Both Teams to Score
Yes
54%
1.68
No
46%
2.06
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
25%
3.44
2-3 Goals
40%
1.81
4-5 Goals
23%
3.46
6+ Goals
12%
13.1
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
22%
3.39
1/2
5%
29.0
1/X
8%
12.75
X/1
14%
5.35
X/2
11%
6.01
X/X
10%
4.7
2/1 EV+ ✗
8%
26.0
2/2
15%
4.06
2/X
7%
12.9
Value flag · 2/1 at 26.0 — our 8% vs market 1.8%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
44%
Home Win
40%
+3.9pp
25%
Draw
27%
-2.0pp
31%
Away Win
33%
-2.0pp
48%
Under 2.5
48%
+0.0pp
52%
Over 2.5
52%
-0.0pp
54%
BTTS Yes
56%
-1.8pp
46%
BTTS No
44%
+1.8pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME St. Gallen EU Bookmakers 44%
Head to Head
AWAY Lugano EU Bookmakers 37%
+2% / +12% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +1% / -7%
1.77/1.39 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.47/1.30
+11% / -3% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -1% / -4%
49% Ball Possession 51%
14 Total Shots 10
5 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 5
315 · 77% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 362 · 79%
26.2 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 21.2
18.9 Crosses 17.4
2.1 Yellow Cards 2.9
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME St. Gallen
2W-2D-2L
AWAY Lugano
1.33 Avg Goals (FT) 1.67
1.29 xG 1.48
37% Ball Possession 63%
11 Total Shots 14
3 Shots on Target 5
4 Corners 6
230 Passes 440
74% Pass Accuracy 83%
20 Box Touches 25
18 Crosses 20
2 Yellow Cards 2
13.04.2025 Lugano Lugano 1-1 HT 0-0 St. Gallen St. Gallen İSV
05.02.2025 St. Gallen St. Gallen 2-1 HT 0-1 Lugano Lugano İSV
01.09.2024 Lugano Lugano 1-1 HT 1-1 St. Gallen St. Gallen İSV
04.05.2024 Lugano Lugano 0-1 HT 0-1 St. Gallen St. Gallen İSV
09.03.2024 St. Gallen St. Gallen 2-3 HT 2-1 Lugano Lugano İSV
28.01.2024 St. Gallen St. Gallen 1-4 HT 0-1 Lugano Lugano İSV
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME St. Gallen
1-0
AWAY Lugano
0.88 xG 1.26
36% Ball Possession 64%
14 Total Shots 19
4 Shots on Target 5
2 Corners 3
214 Passes 422
75% Pass Accuracy 83%
28 Box Touches 25
13 Crosses 18
3 Yellow Cards 3
POST-MATCH St. Gallen vs Lugano
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

St. Gallen nicked a narrow win over Lugano 1-0.

Just as the model leaned, our model had St. Gallen as the likeliest winner at 44%, and the 1-0 landed on that lead.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 52% and both teams to score was close to even at 54%.

On the day, St. Gallen had 36% of the ball to Lugano's 64%, shots finished 14-19, expected goals 0.88 to 1.26.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, honours were even at 2 apiece, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 1.33 goals for St. Gallen and 1.67 for Lugano.

What was the final score of St. Gallen vs Lugano?

St. Gallen 1-0 Lugano in the Switzerland - Super League on 13/09/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for St. Gallen vs Lugano?

Before kick-off our model rated a St. Gallen win the most likely single outcome at about 44%, with the full match-result split St. Gallen 44%, draw 25%, Lugano 31%. The final score 1-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (St. Gallen) — while Over 2.5, BTTS Yes went the other way.

✓ Match Result (St. Gallen) ✗ Over 2.5 ✗ BTTS Yes
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