Larne FC 1-0 Glenavon FC — Result, Statistics & Match Review — North Ireland - Premier League, 13 Sep 2025

📅13/09/2025 · 🕒17:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 2-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
68%
1.45
Draw
21%
4.08
Away
11%
5.79
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
54%
1.86
Over 2.5
46%
1.86
Both Teams to Score
Yes
47%
2.09
No
53%
1.66
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✓
28%
3.01
2-3 Goals
40%
1.71
4-5 Goals
22%
3.44
6+ Goals
10%
13.95
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 3.01 — our 28% vs market 25.8%. Landed.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
38%
1.75
1/2
3%
34.5
1/X
7%
18.05
X/1
20%
3.67
X/2
3%
13.5
X/X
10%
5.56
2/1
10%
24.5
2/2
5%
12.2
2/X
4%
20.9
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
💡 For the risk lovers: Home Win ★★★ BTTS No ★★ — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
68%
Home Win
65%
+3.3pp
21%
Draw
21%
-0.2pp
11%
Away Win
14%
-3.1pp
54%
Under 2.5
50%
+4.4pp
46%
Over 2.5
50%
-4.4pp
47%
BTTS Yes
44%
+3.1pp
53%
BTTS No
56%
-3.2pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Larne FC EU Bookmakers 69%
Head to Head
AWAY Glenavon FC EU Bookmakers 17%
-8% / -16% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +0% / +7%
2.07/0.87 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.08/2.08
+2% / -5% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +18% / -16%
53% Ball Possession 47%
15 Total Shots 10
6 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 4
367 · 81% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 288 · 77%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
2.4 Yellow Cards 1.7
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Larne FC
4W-2D-0L
AWAY Glenavon FC
2.83 Avg Goals (FT) 0.50
54% Ball Possession 46%
11 Total Shots 6
6 Shots on Target 3
5 Corners 4
2 Yellow Cards 2
22.03.2025 Glenavon FC Glenavon FC 0-1 HT 0-0 Larne FC Larne FC KİRL
18.02.2025 Larne FC Larne FC 1-1 HT 1-0 Glenavon FC Glenavon FC KİRL
17.09.2024 Glenavon FC Glenavon FC 0-0 HT 0-0 Larne FC Larne FC KİRL
16.03.2024 Larne FC Larne FC 6-1 HT 5-1 Glenavon FC Glenavon FC KİRL
03.02.2024 Larne FC Larne FC 5-0 HT 2-0 Glenavon FC Glenavon FC KİRK
08.12.2023 Larne FC Larne FC 4-1 HT 1-0 Glenavon FC Glenavon FC KİRL
POST-MATCH Larne FC vs Glenavon FC
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Larne FC nicked a narrow win over Glenavon FC 1-0. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

As our pre-match numbers suggested, our model had Larne FC as the likeliest winner at 68%, and the 1-0 landed on that lead.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 46% and both teams to score was close to even at 47%.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Larne FC had the better of it with 4 wins, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 2.83 goals for Larne FC and 0.50 for Glenavon FC.

What was the final score of Larne FC vs Glenavon FC?

Larne FC 1-0 Glenavon FC in the North Ireland - Premier League on 13/09/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Larne FC vs Glenavon FC?

Before kick-off our model rated a Larne FC win the most likely single outcome at about 68%, with the full match-result split Larne FC 68%, draw 21%, Glenavon FC 11%. The final score 1-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Larne FC), Under 2.5, BTTS No — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Larne FC) ✓ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS No
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