Paksi SE 1-2 Diosgyor — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Hungary - NB I, 14 Feb 2026

📅14/02/2026 · 🕒21:15 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-1 2nd Score 3-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
59%
1.57
Draw
19%
4.08
Away
22%
4.31
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
41%
2.51
Over 2.5
59%
1.48
Both Teams to Score
Yes
58%
1.55
No
42%
2.29
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
23%
5.37
2-3 Goals
38%
1.99
4-5 Goals
26%
2.56
6+ Goals
13%
5.91
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
33%
1/2
4%
1/X
5%
X/1
19%
X/2
10%
X/X
9%
2/1
6%
2/2
9%
2/X
5%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
💡 For the risk lovers: Over 2.5 ★★ — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
59%
Home Win
59%
-0.5pp
19%
Draw
21%
-2.1pp
22%
Away Win
20%
+2.5pp
41%
Under 2.5
36%
+5.1pp
59%
Over 2.5
64%
-5.1pp
58%
BTTS Yes
60%
-2.3pp
42%
BTTS No
40%
+2.3pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Paksi SE EU Bookmakers 64%
Head to Head
AWAY Diosgyor EU Bookmakers 23%
+1% / +2% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -6% / -18%
2.18/1.23 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.18/1.57
+13% / -15% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -16% / -10%
53% Ball Possession 47%
15 Total Shots 11
6 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 4
324 · 75% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 306 · 73%
34.9 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 18.0
33.0 Crosses 17.7
1.8 Yellow Cards 2.4
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Paksi SE
1W-1D-4L
AWAY Diosgyor
1.83 Avg Goals (FT) 2.67
1.36 xG 1.26
49% Ball Possession 51%
15 Total Shots 12
5 Shots on Target 5
5 Corners 4
269 Passes 304
70% Pass Accuracy 72%
30 Box Touches 25
29 Crosses 22
2 Yellow Cards 2
11.02.2026 Paksi SE Paksi SE 2-6 HT 2-4 Diosgyor Diosgyor MACK
25.10.2025 Diosgyor Diosgyor 2-1 HT 0-0 Paksi SE Paksi SE MAC
08.03.2025 Diosgyor Diosgyor 0-2 HT 0-1 Paksi SE Paksi SE MAC
03.11.2024 Paksi SE Paksi SE 3-4 HT 2-3 Diosgyor Diosgyor MAC
28.07.2024 Diosgyor Diosgyor 2-2 HT 1-0 Paksi SE Paksi SE MAC
16.03.2024 Diosgyor Diosgyor 2-1 HT 1-1 Paksi SE Paksi SE MAC
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Paksi SE
1-2
AWAY Diosgyor
2.48 xG 2.10
50% Ball Possession 50%
16 Total Shots 11
8 Shots on Target 5
13 Corners 3
144 Passes 169
59% Pass Accuracy 64%
40 Box Touches 17
40 Crosses 11
3 Yellow Cards 6
POST-MATCH Paksi SE vs Diosgyor
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Diosgyor squeezed past Paksi SE 2-1 away from home. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

This one beat our numbers. Paksi SE carried 59% before kick-off and it didn't land — a reminder that even strong leads lose regularly. We had also flagged over 2.5 goals (59%), both teams to score (58%), and both reads landed as well.

On the day, Paksi SE had 50% of the ball to Diosgyor's 50%, shots finished 16-11, expected goals 2.48 to 2.10.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Diosgyor led the recent series with 4 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.83 goals for Paksi SE and 2.67 for Diosgyor.

What was the final score of Paksi SE vs Diosgyor?

Paksi SE 1-2 Diosgyor in the Hungary - NB I on 14/02/2026. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Paksi SE vs Diosgyor?

Before kick-off our model rated a Paksi SE win the most likely single outcome at about 59%, with the full match-result split Paksi SE 59%, draw 19%, Diosgyor 22%. The final score 1-2 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — while Match Result (Paksi SE) went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Paksi SE) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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