Atalanta 2-1 Sporting CP — Result, Statistics & Match Review — UEFA Europa League, 14 Mar 2024

📅14/03/2024 · 🕒23:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 2nd Score 2-2
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
40%
1.82
Draw
30%
3.54
Away
30%
3.63
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
49%
2.03
Over 2.5
51%
1.71
Both Teams to Score
Yes
57%
1.68
No
43%
2.06
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
24%
3.81
2-3 Goals
41%
1.83
4-5 Goals
23%
3.22
6+ Goals
12%
11.0
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
18%
2.44
1/2
8%
34.5
1/X
8%
14.0
X/1
15%
4.28
X/2
12%
8.05
X/X
15%
5.27
2/1
7%
22.7
2/2
10%
5.83
2/X
7%
14.4
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
40%
Home Win
51%
-11.0pp
30%
Draw
25%
+5.6pp
30%
Away Win
24%
+5.5pp
49%
Under 2.5
45%
+3.8pp
51%
Over 2.5
55%
-3.8pp
57%
BTTS Yes
56%
+1.6pp
43%
BTTS No
44%
-1.6pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Atalanta EU Bookmakers 55%
Head to Head
AWAY Sporting CP EU Bookmakers 28%
+7% / +7% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +12% / +10%
1.06/1.17 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.44/1.05
+3% / -28% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +10% / +9%
55% Ball Possession 45%
14 Total Shots 9
5 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 4
367 · 79% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 302 · 75%
21.0 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 15.3
11.7 Crosses 9.8
2.8 Yellow Cards 2.7
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Atalanta
1W-2D-0L
AWAY Sporting CP
1.33 Avg Goals (FT) 1.00
1.34 xG 1.30
49% Ball Possession 51%
11 Total Shots 10
4 Shots on Target 2
6 Corners 4
393 Passes 442
81% Pass Accuracy 84%
19 Box Touches 16
18 Crosses 12
4 Yellow Cards 2
06.03.2024 Sporting CP Sporting CP 1-1 HT 1-1 Atalanta Atalanta AVL
30.11.2023 Atalanta Atalanta 1-1 HT 1-0 Sporting CP Sporting CP AVL
05.10.2023 Sporting CP Sporting CP 1-2 HT 0-2 Atalanta Atalanta AVL
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Atalanta
2-1
AWAY Sporting CP
1.62 xG 1.21
41% Ball Possession 59%
10 Total Shots 8
5 Shots on Target 4
3 Corners 3
335 Passes 511
82% Pass Accuracy 84%
25 Box Touches 22
18 Crosses 11
1 Yellow Cards 0
POST-MATCH Atalanta vs Sporting CP
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Atalanta nicked a narrow win over Sporting CP 2-1. It was 0-1 at half-time, meaning the result turned around in the second half.

Our pre-match split (40% / 30% / 30%) promised a tight game; Atalanta found the edge the numbers couldn't. We had also flagged both teams to score (57%), and that read landed as well.

On the day, Atalanta had 41% of the ball to Sporting CP's 59%, shots finished 10-8, expected goals 1.62 to 1.21.

Coming into the game, across their last 3 meetings in our records, Atalanta had the better of it with 1 wins, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 1.33 goals for Atalanta and 1.00 for Sporting CP.

What was the final score of Atalanta vs Sporting CP?

Atalanta 2-1 Sporting CP in the UEFA Europa League on 14/03/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Atalanta vs Sporting CP?

Before kick-off our model rated a Atalanta win the most likely single outcome at about 40%, with the full match-result split Atalanta 40%, draw 30%, Sporting CP 30%. The final score 2-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Atalanta), Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Atalanta) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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