West Ham United 5-0 Freiburg — Result, Statistics & Match Review — UEFA Europa League, 14 Mar 2024

📅14/03/2024 · 🕒20:45 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 2-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
48%
1.64
Draw
25%
3.8
Away
27%
4.31
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
53%
2.07
Over 2.5
47%
1.68
Both Teams to Score
Yes
47%
1.75
No
53%
1.96
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
27%
3.9
2-3 Goals
42%
1.84
4-5 Goals
21%
3.16
6+ Goals
10%
10.55
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 3.9 — our 27% vs market 20.5%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
28%
2.07
1/2
5%
34.5
1/X
7%
15.2
X/1
12%
3.93
X/2
9%
10.1
X/X
10%
5.63
2/1
8%
21.85
2/2
13%
7.61
2/X
8%
15.8
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
💡 For the risk lovers: Home Win ★★ — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
48%
Home Win
57%
-8.7pp
24%
Draw
23%
+1.3pp
27%
Away Win
20%
+7.3pp
53%
Under 2.5
44%
+8.9pp
47%
Over 2.5
56%
-8.9pp
47%
BTTS Yes
53%
-5.8pp
53%
BTTS No
47%
+5.8pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME West Ham United EU Bookmakers 61%
Head to Head
AWAY Freiburg EU Bookmakers 23%
+23% / +23% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +5% / +5%
1.64/0.45 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.09/1.07
+1% / +150% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -73% / +71%
55% Ball Possession 45%
14 Total Shots 10
5 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 4
412 · 81% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 326 · 76%
21.0 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 19.3
10.0 Crosses 14.8
Yellow Cards 1.8
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME West Ham United
2W-0D-1L
AWAY Freiburg
1.33 Avg Goals (FT) 0.67
1.38 xG 1.17
48% Ball Possession 52%
11 Total Shots 13
4 Shots on Target 4
3 Corners 3
428 Passes 449
83% Pass Accuracy 83%
22 Box Touches 19
12 Crosses 20
1 Yellow Cards 2
07.03.2024 Freiburg Freiburg 1-0 HT 0-0 West Ham United West Ham United AVL
14.12.2023 West Ham United West Ham United 2-0 HT 2-0 Freiburg Freiburg AVL
05.10.2023 Freiburg Freiburg 1-2 HT 0-1 West Ham United West Ham United AVL
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME West Ham United
5-0
AWAY Freiburg
2.22 xG 0.31
39% Ball Possession 61%
11 Total Shots 10
7 Shots on Target 3
6 Corners 1
286 Passes 477
80% Pass Accuracy 86%
23 Box Touches 11
14 Crosses 17
2 Yellow Cards 0
POST-MATCH West Ham United vs Freiburg
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

West Ham United swept aside Freiburg 5-0. Half-time: 2-0. 5 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

As we said in the preview, our model had West Ham United as the likeliest winner at 48%, and the 5-0 landed on that lead.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 47% and both teams to score was close to even at 47%.

On the day, West Ham United had 39% of the ball to Freiburg's 61%, shots finished 11-10, expected goals 2.22 to 0.31.

For context: across their last 3 meetings in our records, West Ham United had the better of it with 2 wins. Those games averaged 1.33 goals for West Ham United and 0.67 for Freiburg.

What was the final score of West Ham United vs Freiburg?

West Ham United 5-0 Freiburg in the UEFA Europa League on 14/03/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for West Ham United vs Freiburg?

Before kick-off our model rated a West Ham United win the most likely single outcome at about 48%, with the full match-result split West Ham United 48%, draw 24%, Freiburg 27%. The final score 5-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (West Ham United), BTTS No — while Under 2.5 went the other way.

✓ Match Result (West Ham United) ✗ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS No
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