Bayer Leverkusen vs Karabağ Prediction — Model Probabilities
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
Bayer Leverkusen v Karabağ — Team-Based Signals
Bayer Leverkusen vs Karabağ Head-to-Head — Last 3 Meetings
0-1
HT 0-0
Bayer Leverkusen
AVL
5-1
HT 3-1
Karabağ
AVL
Bayer Leverkusen 3-2 Karabağ — Actual Match Statistics
Bayer Leverkusen edged past Karabağ 3-2. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it. 5 goals made it one of the day's more open games.
Just as the model leaned, our model had Bayer Leverkusen as the likeliest winner at 64%, and the 3-2 landed on that lead. The goals side of the card held up too — over 2.5 goals (60%) came in.
On the day, Bayer Leverkusen had 71% of the ball to Karabağ's 29%, shots finished 33-11, expected goals 4.30 to 1.15 — an xG gap that size says the one-goal margin undersold Bayer Leverkusen's control.
For context: across their last 3 meetings in our records, Bayer Leverkusen had the better of it with 2 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 2.67 goals for Bayer Leverkusen and 1.00 for Karabağ.
What was the final score of Bayer Leverkusen vs Karabağ?
Bayer Leverkusen 3-2 Karabağ in the UEFA Europa League on 14/03/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.
What did the model predict for Bayer Leverkusen vs Karabağ?
Before kick-off our model rated a Bayer Leverkusen win the most likely single outcome at about 64%, with the full match-result split Bayer Leverkusen 64%, draw 20%, Karabağ 16%. The final score 3-2 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Bayer Leverkusen), Over 2.5 — a clean sweep of the main markets.