Rangers 0-1 Benfica — Result, Statistics & Match Review — UEFA Europa League, 14 Mar 2024

📅14/03/2024 · 🕒20:45 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-2 2nd Score 2-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
41%
2.8
Draw
25%
3.45
Away
34%
2.16
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
46%
2.18
Over 2.5
54%
1.62
Both Teams to Score
Yes
50%
1.55
No
50%
2.29
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
24%
4.38
2-3 Goals
38%
1.88
4-5 Goals
27%
2.95
6+ Goals
11%
8.79
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
17%
4.3
1/2
6%
23.6
1/X
8%
12.65
X/1
14%
6.68
X/2
9%
5.14
X/X
10%
5.22
2/1 EV+ ✗
10%
29.0
2/2
19%
2.98
2/X
7%
12.45
Value flag · 2/1 at 29.0 — our 10% vs market 1.5%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
41%
Home Win
32%
+8.4pp
25%
Draw
26%
-0.1pp
34%
Away Win
42%
-8.3pp
46%
Under 2.5
42%
+4.1pp
54%
Over 2.5
58%
-4.1pp
50%
BTTS Yes
60%
-10.3pp
50%
BTTS No
40%
+10.3pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Rangers EU Bookmakers 36%
Head to Head
AWAY Benfica EU Bookmakers 46%
+14% / +14% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -23% / -23%
1.66/1.17 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.38/2.06
+3% / +62% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -98% / +150%
45% Ball Possession 55%
14 Total Shots 11
5 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 5
317 · 77% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 414 · 81%
20.5 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 9.4
21.6 Crosses 10.9
2.1 Yellow Cards 0.8
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Rangers
0W-3D-0L
AWAY Benfica
2.33 Avg Goals (FT) 2.33
1.49 xG 1.84
43% Ball Possession 57%
10 Total Shots 14
5 Shots on Target 3
3 Corners 6
366 Passes 469
79% Pass Accuracy 85%
17 Box Touches 31
17 Crosses 21
2 Yellow Cards 2
07.03.2024 Benfica Benfica 2-2 HT 1-2 Rangers Rangers AVL
26.11.2020 Rangers Rangers 2-2 HT 1-0 Benfica Benfica AVL
05.11.2020 Benfica Benfica 3-3 HT 1-2 Rangers Rangers AVL
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Rangers
0-1
AWAY Benfica
0.65 xG 1.61
59% Ball Possession 41%
12 Total Shots 14
3 Shots on Target 4
8 Corners 6
493 Passes 338
84% Pass Accuracy 81%
26 Box Touches 22
28 Crosses 15
1 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH Rangers vs Benfica
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Benfica nicked a narrow win over Rangers 1-0 away from home. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

Our pre-match lean was Rangers at 41%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 54% and both teams to score was close to even at 50%.

On the day, Rangers had 59% of the ball to Benfica's 41%, shots finished 12-14, expected goals 0.65 to 1.61.

For context: across their last 3 meetings in our records, honours were even at 0 apiece, 3 drawn. Those games averaged 2.33 goals for Rangers and 2.33 for Benfica.

What was the final score of Rangers vs Benfica?

Rangers 0-1 Benfica in the UEFA Europa League on 14/03/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Rangers vs Benfica?

Before kick-off our model rated a Rangers win the most likely single outcome at about 41%, with the full match-result split Rangers 41%, draw 25%, Benfica 34%. The final score 0-1 went against our main leads this time — single matches are noisy by nature; our accuracy is measured across thousands of predictions, not one result.

✗ Match Result (Rangers) ✗ Over 2.5
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