Villarreal 3-1 Marsilya — Result, Statistics & Match Review — UEFA Europa League, 14 Mar 2024

📅14/03/2024 · 🕒20:45 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 2nd Score 0-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
41%
2.05
Draw
27%
3.45
Away
32%
3.02
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
49%
2.07
Over 2.5
51%
1.68
Both Teams to Score
Yes
51%
1.61
No
49%
2.16
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
27%
3.96
2-3 Goals
37%
1.84
4-5 Goals
24%
3.13
6+ Goals
12%
10.3
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 3.96 — our 27% vs market 20.2%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
22%
2.86
1/2
7%
31.5
1/X
10%
13.15
X/1
12%
4.81
X/2
12%
6.75
X/X
10%
5.19
2/1
7%
23.6
2/2
13%
4.59
2/X
7%
13.4
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
41%
Home Win
45%
-4.1pp
27%
Draw
26%
+1.2pp
32%
Away Win
30%
+2.9pp
49%
Under 2.5
44%
+4.2pp
51%
Over 2.5
56%
-4.2pp
51%
BTTS Yes
58%
-6.7pp
49%
BTTS No
42%
+6.7pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Villarreal EU Bookmakers 49%
Head to Head
AWAY Marsilya EU Bookmakers 33%
+22% / +21% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -6% / -6%
1.06/2.02 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 2.17/2.13
+29% / +1% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +76% / -27%
50% Ball Possession 50%
13 Total Shots 11
6 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 4
395 · 82% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 392 · 82%
14.8 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 25.4
11.0 Crosses 12.2
2.4 Yellow Cards 1.9
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Villarreal
0W-1D-2L
AWAY Marsilya
0.67 Avg Goals (FT) 2.33
0.27 xG 3.05
46% Ball Possession 54%
8 Total Shots 10
1 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 2
292 Passes 456
84% Pass Accuracy 89%
14 Box Touches 25
7 Crosses 24
4 Yellow Cards 1
07.03.2024 Marsilya Marsilya 4-0 HT 3-0 Villarreal Villarreal AVL
31.07.2021 Marsilya Marsilya 2-1 HT 1-0 Villarreal Villarreal HAZ
21.07.2018 Marsilya Marsilya 1-1 HT 0-1 Villarreal Villarreal HAZ
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Villarreal
3-1
AWAY Marsilya
1.92 xG 1.60
64% Ball Possession 36%
25 Total Shots 7
8 Shots on Target 2
9 Corners 3
385 Passes 183
82% Pass Accuracy 68%
43 Box Touches 9
29 Crosses 10
3 Yellow Cards 5
POST-MATCH Villarreal vs Marsilya
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Villarreal got the better of Marsilya 3-1. Half-time: 1-0.

As we said in the preview, our model had Villarreal as the likeliest winner at 41%, and the 3-1 landed on that lead.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 51% and both teams to score was close to even at 51%.

On the day, Villarreal had 64% of the ball to Marsilya's 36%, shots finished 25-7, expected goals 1.92 to 1.60.

Coming into the game, across their last 3 meetings in our records, Marsilya led the recent series with 2 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 0.67 goals for Villarreal and 2.33 for Marsilya.

What was the final score of Villarreal vs Marsilya?

Villarreal 3-1 Marsilya in the UEFA Europa League on 14/03/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Villarreal vs Marsilya?

Before kick-off our model rated a Villarreal win the most likely single outcome at about 41%, with the full match-result split Villarreal 41%, draw 27%, Marsilya 32%. The final score 3-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Villarreal), Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Villarreal) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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