Slavia Prag 1-3 Milan — Result, Statistics & Match Review — UEFA Europa League, 14 Mar 2024

📅14/03/2024 · 🕒20:45 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 1-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
36%
2.67
Draw
28%
3.28
Away
36%
2.35
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
51%
1.9
Over 2.5
49%
1.82
Both Teams to Score
Yes
49%
1.68
No
51%
2.06
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
29%
3.35
2-3 Goals
37%
1.79
4-5 Goals
23%
3.52
6+ Goals
11%
13.85
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 3.35 — our 29% vs market 24.4%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
15%
4.07
1/2
6%
27.0
1/X
8%
13.1
X/1
12%
5.92
X/2
18%
5.2
X/X
14%
4.63
2/1
9%
30.5
2/2
12%
3.39
2/X
6%
13.05
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
36%
Home Win
34%
+2.3pp
28%
Draw
27%
+0.9pp
36%
Away Win
39%
-3.3pp
51%
Under 2.5
49%
+1.8pp
49%
Over 2.5
51%
-1.8pp
49%
BTTS Yes
56%
-6.3pp
51%
BTTS No
44%
+6.3pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Slavia Prag EU Bookmakers 37%
Head to Head
AWAY Milan EU Bookmakers 43%
+7% / +7% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -29% / -29%
1.64/0.79 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.51/2.21
+11% / +150% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +3% / -48%
49% Ball Possession 51%
11 Total Shots 12
4 Shots on Target 5
5 Corners 4
381 · 80% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 343 · 78%
23.4 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 16.9
22.1 Crosses 12.6
2.5 Yellow Cards 2.4
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Slavia Prag
0W-0D-1L
AWAY Milan
2.00 Avg Goals (FT) 4.00
0.49 xG 2.47
35% Ball Possession 65%
8 Total Shots 20
2 Shots on Target 9
4 Corners 8
237 Passes 503
78% Pass Accuracy 89%
8 Box Touches 26
15 Crosses 21
0 Yellow Cards 2
07.03.2024 Milan Milan 4-2 HT 3-1 Slavia Prag Slavia Prag AVL
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Slavia Prag
1-3
AWAY Milan
0.36 xG 2.11
38% Ball Possession 62%
8 Total Shots 12
2 Shots on Target 6
3 Corners 5
299 Passes 526
87% Pass Accuracy 92%
13 Box Touches 24
15 Crosses 11
3 Yellow Cards 3
POST-MATCH Slavia Prag vs Milan
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Milan beat Slavia Prag 3-1 away from home. Half-time: 0-3.

We called this one close before kick-off — 36% / 28% / 36% — and on the day Milan made the difference.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 49% and both teams to score was close to even at 49%.

On the day, Slavia Prag had 38% of the ball to Milan's 62%, shots finished 8-12, expected goals 0.36 to 2.11.

What was the final score of Slavia Prag vs Milan?

Slavia Prag 1-3 Milan in the UEFA Europa League on 14/03/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Slavia Prag vs Milan?

Before kick-off our model rated a Slavia Prag win the most likely single outcome at about 36%, with the full match-result split Slavia Prag 36%, draw 28%, Milan 36%. The final score 1-3 went against our main leads this time — single matches are noisy by nature; our accuracy is measured across thousands of predictions, not one result.

◐ Match Result — model had it level (36/28/36) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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