Brighton & Hove Albion 1-0 Roma — Result, Statistics & Match Review — UEFA Europa League, 14 Mar 2024

Brighton & Hove Albion
1-0 HT 1-0
Roma
📅14/03/2024 · 🕒23:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 ✓ 2nd Score 2-0 ✗
UEFA Europa League – 2023/2024

Brighton & Hove Albion vs Roma Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
50%
1.61
Draw
26%
3.94
Away
24%
4.31
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
54%
2.21
Over 2.5
46%
1.6
Both Teams to Score
Yes
46%
1.68
No
54%
2.06
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✓
28%
4.39
2-3 Goals
41%
1.88
4-5 Goals
22%
2.95
6+ Goals
9%
8.75
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 4.39 — our 28% vs market 17.9%. Landed.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
20%
2.02
1/2
6%
34.5
1/X
11%
15.2
X/1
21%
3.97
X/2
9%
10.3
X/X
10%
6.03
2/1
9%
20.9
2/2
9%
7.45
2/X
5%
15.75
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
💡 For the risk lovers: Home Win ★★ — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
50%
Home Win
58%
-7.5pp
26%
Draw
22%
+3.9pp
24%
Away Win
20%
+3.6pp
54%
Under 2.5
41%
+12.4pp
46%
Over 2.5
59%
-12.4pp
46%
BTTS Yes
56%
-9.5pp
54%
BTTS No
44%
+9.5pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Brighton & Hove Albion v Roma — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Brighton & Hove Albion EU Bookmakers 62%
Head to Head
AWAY Roma EU Bookmakers 23%
+26% / +26% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -5% / -5%
1.16/0.38 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.81/1.45
-54% / – Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -49% / +102%
55% Ball Possession 45%
15 Total Shots 9
6 Shots on Target 3
6 Corners 3
447 · 83% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 340 · 78%
32.0 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 15.7
13.0 Crosses 13.7
4.0 Yellow Cards 2.1

Brighton & Hove Albion vs Roma Head-to-Head — Last 1 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Brighton & Hove Albion
0W-0D-1L
AWAY Roma
0.00 Avg Goals (FT) 4.00
1.03 xG 2.98
60% Ball Possession 40%
11 Total Shots 14
4 Shots on Target 7
6 Corners 5
527 Passes 325
91% Pass Accuracy 83%
26 Box Touches 19
19 Crosses 12
2 Yellow Cards 1
The Meetings
07.03.2024 Roma Roma 4-0 HT 2-0 Brighton & Hove Albion Brighton & Hove Albion AVL

Brighton & Hove Albion 1-0 Roma — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Brighton & Hove Albion
1-0
AWAY Roma
1.47 xG 0.38
65% Ball Possession 35%
21 Total Shots 8
5 Shots on Target 1
5 Corners 1
540 Passes 257
88% Pass Accuracy 76%
50 Box Touches 9
28 Crosses 6
2 Yellow Cards 5
POST-MATCH Brighton & Hove Albion vs Roma
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Brighton & Hove Albion squeezed past Roma 1-0.

As we said in the preview, our model had Brighton & Hove Albion as the likeliest winner at 50%, and the 1-0 landed on that lead.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 46% and both teams to score was close to even at 46%.

On the day, Brighton & Hove Albion had 65% of the ball to Roma's 35%, shots finished 21-8, expected goals 1.47 to 0.38.

What was the final score of Brighton & Hove Albion vs Roma?

Brighton & Hove Albion 1-0 Roma in the UEFA Europa League on 14/03/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Brighton & Hove Albion vs Roma?

Before kick-off our model rated a Brighton & Hove Albion win the most likely single outcome at about 50%, with the full match-result split Brighton & Hove Albion 50%, draw 26%, Roma 24%. The final score 1-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Brighton & Hove Albion), Under 2.5, BTTS No — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Brighton & Hove Albion) ✓ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS No
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