FC Eindhoven 1-2 Excelsior — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Netherlands - Eerste Divisie, 14 Mar 2025

📅14/03/2025 · 🕒22:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 2nd Score 2-2
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
31%
3.17
Draw
25%
3.64
Away
44%
1.91
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
49%
2.23
Over 2.5
51%
1.59
Both Teams to Score
Yes
52%
1.55
No
48%
2.29
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
28%
4.32
2-3 Goals
34%
1.85
4-5 Goals
24%
2.74
6+ Goals
14%
7.63
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
14%
5.25
1/2
7%
21.1
1/X
6%
13.5
X/1
9%
7.77
X/2
10%
4.87
X/X
12%
5.63
2/1
8%
31.0
2/2
27%
2.56
2/X
7%
12.7
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
31%
Home Win
28%
+3.4pp
25%
Draw
24%
+0.9pp
44%
Away Win
48%
-4.2pp
49%
Under 2.5
41%
+8.3pp
51%
Over 2.5
59%
-8.3pp
52%
BTTS Yes
60%
-8.3pp
48%
BTTS No
40%
+8.3pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME FC Eindhoven EU Bookmakers 32%
Head to Head
AWAY Excelsior EU Bookmakers 52%
+5% / -1% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -3% / -5%
1.19/1.16 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.73/1.19
-11% / +11% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +7% / -2%
49% Ball Possession 51%
12 Total Shots 14
4 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 5
355 · 79% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 342 · 77%
17.8 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 27.5
18.0 Crosses 24.1
1.6 Yellow Cards 1.6
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME FC Eindhoven
2W-1D-3L
AWAY Excelsior
1.67 Avg Goals (FT) 1.83
1.37 xG 1.47
51% Ball Possession 49%
13 Total Shots 13
6 Shots on Target 5
5 Corners 4
322 Passes 326
76% Pass Accuracy 76%
22 Box Touches 18
22 Crosses 18
2 Yellow Cards 2
17.12.2024 FC Eindhoven FC Eindhoven 1-3 HT 0-2 Excelsior Excelsior HOK
08.11.2024 Excelsior Excelsior 2-0 HT 2-0 FC Eindhoven FC Eindhoven HOL2
07.02.2022 FC Eindhoven FC Eindhoven 4-1 HT 3-1 Excelsior Excelsior HOL2
30.10.2021 Excelsior Excelsior 3-4 HT 1-2 FC Eindhoven FC Eindhoven HOL2
15.01.2021 Excelsior Excelsior 1-0 HT 1-0 FC Eindhoven FC Eindhoven HOL2
09.10.2020 FC Eindhoven FC Eindhoven 1-1 HT 0-0 Excelsior Excelsior HOL2
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME FC Eindhoven
1-2
AWAY Excelsior
0.53 xG 1.67
35% Ball Possession 65%
8 Total Shots 20
2 Shots on Target 8
1 Corners 5
285 Passes 577
78% Pass Accuracy 87%
17 Box Touches 35
5 Crosses 23
1 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH FC Eindhoven vs Excelsior
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Excelsior nicked a narrow win over FC Eindhoven 2-1 away from home. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

As our pre-match numbers suggested, our model had Excelsior as the likeliest winner at 44%, and the 2-1 landed on that lead.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 51% and both teams to score was close to even at 52%.

On the day, FC Eindhoven had 35% of the ball to Excelsior's 65%, shots finished 8-20, expected goals 0.53 to 1.67.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Excelsior led the recent series with 3 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.67 goals for FC Eindhoven and 1.83 for Excelsior.

What was the final score of FC Eindhoven vs Excelsior?

FC Eindhoven 1-2 Excelsior in the Netherlands - Eerste Divisie on 14/03/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for FC Eindhoven vs Excelsior?

Before kick-off our model rated an Excelsior win the most likely single outcome at about 44%, with the full match-result split FC Eindhoven 31%, draw 25%, Excelsior 44%. The final score 1-2 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Excelsior), Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Excelsior) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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