MVV Maastricht 0-1 AZ Alkmaar II — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Netherlands - Eerste Divisie, 14 Mar 2025

📅14/03/2025 · 🕒22:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-2 2nd Score 2-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
40%
2.12
Draw
22%
3.54
Away
38%
2.79
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
44%
2.43
Over 2.5
56%
1.51
Both Teams to Score
Yes
54%
1.46
No
46%
2.53
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
23%
4.95
2-3 Goals
36%
1.93
4-5 Goals
27%
2.58
6+ Goals
14%
6.3
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
20%
2.95
1/2
6%
26.0
1/X
6%
12.25
X/1
13%
5.48
X/2
12%
6.85
X/X
9%
5.83
2/1
7%
21.5
2/2
20%
4.16
2/X
7%
12.55
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
40%
Home Win
43%
-3.5pp
22%
Draw
25%
-2.5pp
38%
Away Win
32%
+6.1pp
44%
Under 2.5
38%
+6.1pp
56%
Over 2.5
62%
-6.1pp
54%
BTTS Yes
64%
-10.5pp
46%
BTTS No
36%
+10.5pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME MVV Maastricht EU Bookmakers 47%
Head to Head
AWAY AZ Alkmaar II EU Bookmakers 36%
+5% / +25% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -1% / +1%
2.01/1.29 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.10/1.45
+52% / +33% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -9% / -10%
47% Ball Possession 53%
13 Total Shots 12
6 Shots on Target 5
5 Corners 5
321 · 78% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 367 · 81%
24.1 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 22.5
15.9 Crosses 9.9
2.0 Yellow Cards 1.7
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME MVV Maastricht
3W-0D-3L
AWAY AZ Alkmaar II
2.33 Avg Goals (FT) 2.17
1.71 xG 1.86
44% Ball Possession 56%
12 Total Shots 18
4 Shots on Target 6
5 Corners 6
334 Passes 440
78% Pass Accuracy 83%
21 Box Touches 31
16 Crosses 14
2 Yellow Cards 1
02.12.2024 AZ Alkmaar II AZ Alkmaar II 2-3 HT 1-2 MVV Maastricht MVV Maastricht HOL2
03.05.2024 AZ Alkmaar II AZ Alkmaar II 2-3 HT 1-2 MVV Maastricht MVV Maastricht HOL2
01.12.2023 MVV Maastricht MVV Maastricht 4-0 HT 2-0 AZ Alkmaar II AZ Alkmaar II HOL2
28.04.2023 MVV Maastricht MVV Maastricht 1-3 HT 0-0 AZ Alkmaar II AZ Alkmaar II HOL2
08.08.2022 AZ Alkmaar II AZ Alkmaar II 3-1 HT 1-1 MVV Maastricht MVV Maastricht HOL2
14.03.2022 MVV Maastricht MVV Maastricht 2-3 HT 0-1 AZ Alkmaar II AZ Alkmaar II HOL2
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME MVV Maastricht
0-1
AWAY AZ Alkmaar II
0.34 xG 1.33
32% Ball Possession 68%
4 Total Shots 19
0 Shots on Target 7
1 Corners 8
204 Passes 544
68% Pass Accuracy 85%
15 Box Touches 30
8 Crosses 13
1 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH MVV Maastricht vs AZ Alkmaar II
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

AZ Alkmaar II nicked a narrow win over MVV Maastricht 1-0 away from home. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

We called this one close before kick-off — 40% / 22% / 38% — and on the day AZ Alkmaar II made the difference. The goals read — over 2.5 goals (56%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, MVV Maastricht had 32% of the ball to AZ Alkmaar II's 68%, shots finished 4-19, expected goals 0.34 to 1.33.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, honours were even at 3 apiece. Those games averaged 2.33 goals for MVV Maastricht and 2.17 for AZ Alkmaar II.

What was the final score of MVV Maastricht vs AZ Alkmaar II?

MVV Maastricht 0-1 AZ Alkmaar II in the Netherlands - Eerste Divisie on 14/03/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for MVV Maastricht vs AZ Alkmaar II?

Before kick-off our model rated a MVV Maastricht win the most likely single outcome at about 40%, with the full match-result split MVV Maastricht 40%, draw 22%, AZ Alkmaar II 38%. The final score 0-1 went against our main leads this time — single matches are noisy by nature; our accuracy is measured across thousands of predictions, not one result.

✗ Match Result (MVV Maastricht) ✗ Over 2.5 ✗ BTTS Yes
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