Telstar 3-1 Roda — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Netherlands - Eerste Divisie, 14 Mar 2025

Telstar
3-1 HT 1-0
Roda
📅14/03/2025 · 🕒22:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-1 2nd Score 3-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
59%
1.86
Draw
20%
3.45
Away
21%
3.63
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
39%
1.97
Over 2.5
61%
1.75
Both Teams to Score
Yes
56%
1.7
No
44%
2.03
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
18%
3.44
2-3 Goals
39%
1.76
4-5 Goals EV+ ✓
28%
3.14
6+ Goals
15%
11.0
Value flag · 4-5 Goals at 3.14 — our 28% vs market 24.9%. Landed.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
24%
2.47
1/2
6%
34.5
1/X
6%
13.05
X/1
25%
4.56
X/2
7%
8.22
X/X
6%
5.01
2/1 EV+ ✗
10%
23.0
2/2
7%
6.14
2/X
9%
14.15
Value flag · 2/1 at 23.0 — our 10% vs market 2.2%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
59%
Home Win
50%
+9.2pp
20%
Draw
26%
-5.4pp
21%
Away Win
24%
-3.6pp
39%
Under 2.5
47%
-7.6pp
61%
Over 2.5
53%
+7.6pp
56%
BTTS Yes
55%
+1.1pp
44%
BTTS No
45%
-1.1pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Telstar EU Bookmakers 54%
Head to Head
AWAY Roda EU Bookmakers 28%
-2% / -9% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +2% / +0%
1.61/1.18 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.28/1.52
-1% / +4% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -2% / +9%
54% Ball Possession 46%
15 Total Shots 9
6 Shots on Target 3
6 Corners 4
355 · 79% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 305 · 76%
26.7 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 20.5
24.0 Crosses 16.1
0.9 Yellow Cards 2.1
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Telstar
2W-1D-3L
AWAY Roda
1.33 Avg Goals (FT) 1.83
1.23 xG 1.40
42% Ball Possession 58%
13 Total Shots 14
5 Shots on Target 6
5 Corners 6
251 Passes 387
71% Pass Accuracy 80%
20 Box Touches 19
17 Crosses 18
2 Yellow Cards 1
09.11.2024 Roda Roda 1-0 HT 1-0 Telstar Telstar HOL2
01.03.2024 Telstar Telstar 1-1 HT 1-0 Roda Roda HOL2
15.09.2023 Roda Roda 3-0 HT 1-0 Telstar Telstar HOL2
10.03.2023 Roda Roda 1-2 HT 0-1 Telstar Telstar HOL2
14.10.2022 Telstar Telstar 2-1 HT 2-0 Roda Roda HOL2
06.05.2022 Roda Roda 4-3 HT 1-2 Telstar Telstar HOL2
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Telstar
3-1
AWAY Roda
2.18 xG 1.16
52% Ball Possession 48%
22 Total Shots 11
10 Shots on Target 7
7 Corners 4
362 Passes 327
82% Pass Accuracy 80%
39 Box Touches 21
19 Crosses 13
0 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Telstar vs Roda
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Telstar got the better of Roda 3-1. Half-time: 1-0.

As our pre-match numbers suggested, our model had Telstar as the likeliest winner at 59%, and the 3-1 landed on that lead. We had also flagged over 2.5 goals (61%), both teams to score (56%), and both reads landed as well.

On the day, Telstar had 52% of the ball to Roda's 48%, shots finished 22-11, expected goals 2.18 to 1.16.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Roda led the recent series with 3 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.33 goals for Telstar and 1.83 for Roda.

What was the final score of Telstar vs Roda?

Telstar 3-1 Roda in the Netherlands - Eerste Divisie on 14/03/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Telstar vs Roda?

Before kick-off our model rated a Telstar win the most likely single outcome at about 59%, with the full match-result split Telstar 59%, draw 20%, Roda 21%. The final score 3-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Telstar), Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Telstar) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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