Kashiwa Reysol 0-1 Machida Zelvia — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Japan - J1 League, 14 Mar 2026

📅14/03/2026 · 🕒08:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 2nd Score 1-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
43%
1.92
Draw
27%
3.28
Away
30%
3.48
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
54%
1.71
Over 2.5
46%
2.03
Both Teams to Score
Yes
51%
1.85
No
49%
1.85
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✓
30%
2.72
2-3 Goals
41%
1.7
4-5 Goals
20%
3.8
6+ Goals
9%
17.55
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 2.72 — our 30% vs market 29.0%. Landed.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
19%
1/2
6%
1/X
8%
X/1
16%
X/2
14%
X/X
11%
2/1
8%
2/2
10%
2/X
8%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
43%
Home Win
48%
-5.1pp
27%
Draw
27%
-0.1pp
30%
Away Win
25%
+5.2pp
54%
Under 2.5
55%
-0.4pp
46%
Over 2.5
45%
+0.4pp
51%
BTTS Yes
50%
+0.9pp
49%
BTTS No
50%
-0.9pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Kashiwa Reysol EU Bookmakers 52%
Head to Head
AWAY Machida Zelvia EU Bookmakers 29%
-5% / +16% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +15% / +15%
1.69/1.04 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.25/1.06
-8% / -8% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -15% / +61%
53% Ball Possession 47%
11 Total Shots 12
5 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 5
361 · 78% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 334 · 76%
27.5 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 19.0
17.5 Crosses 13.0
1.3 Yellow Cards 1.8
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Kashiwa Reysol
2W-1D-2L
AWAY Machida Zelvia
1.00 Avg Goals (FT) 1.20
0.72 xG 1.52
54% Ball Possession 46%
9 Total Shots 12
3 Shots on Target 4
8 Corners 6
418 Passes 240
81% Pass Accuracy 73%
17 Box Touches 24
13 Crosses 22
1 Yellow Cards 0
06.12.2025 Kashiwa Reysol Kashiwa Reysol 1-0 HT 0-0 Machida Zelvia Machida Zelvia JAP
17.05.2025 Machida Zelvia Machida Zelvia 3-0 HT 3-0 Kashiwa Reysol Kashiwa Reysol JAP
19.10.2024 Kashiwa Reysol Kashiwa Reysol 1-1 HT 0-0 Machida Zelvia Machida Zelvia JAP
03.05.2024 Machida Zelvia Machida Zelvia 2-0 HT 1-0 Kashiwa Reysol Kashiwa Reysol JAP
16.11.2019 Machida Zelvia Machida Zelvia 0-3 HT 0-2 Kashiwa Reysol Kashiwa Reysol JAP2
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Kashiwa Reysol
0-1
AWAY Machida Zelvia
0.55 xG 0.51
69% Ball Possession 31%
11 Total Shots 9
3 Shots on Target 2
0 Corners 2
642 Passes 247
89% Pass Accuracy 78%
12 Box Touches 13
9 Crosses 8
1 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH Kashiwa Reysol vs Machida Zelvia
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Machida Zelvia squeezed past Kashiwa Reysol 1-0 away from home.

Our pre-match lean was Kashiwa Reysol at 43%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 46% and both teams to score was close to even at 51%.

On the day, Kashiwa Reysol had 69% of the ball to Machida Zelvia's 31%, shots finished 11-9, expected goals 0.55 to 0.51.

Coming into the game, across their last 5 meetings in our records, honours were even at 2 apiece, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.00 goals for Kashiwa Reysol and 1.20 for Machida Zelvia.

What was the final score of Kashiwa Reysol vs Machida Zelvia?

Kashiwa Reysol 0-1 Machida Zelvia in the Japan - J1 League on 14/03/2026. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Kashiwa Reysol vs Machida Zelvia?

Before kick-off our model rated a Kashiwa Reysol win the most likely single outcome at about 43%, with the full match-result split Kashiwa Reysol 43%, draw 27%, Machida Zelvia 30%. The final score 0-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Under 2.5 — while Match Result (Kashiwa Reysol), BTTS Yes went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Kashiwa Reysol) ✓ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS Yes
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