Shimizu S-Pulse 1-1 Fagiano Okayama — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Japan - J1 League, 14 Mar 2026

📅14/03/2026 · 🕒08:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 2nd Score 1-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
39%
2.33
Draw
29%
3.18
Away
32%
2.79
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
58%
1.67
Over 2.5
42%
2.1
Both Teams to Score
Yes
50%
1.85
No
50%
1.85
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
32%
2.59
2-3 Goals
42%
1.7
4-5 Goals
18%
4.0
6+ Goals
8%
19.6
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 2.59 — our 32% vs market 30.7%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
20%
1/2
6%
1/X
5%
X/1
11%
X/2
17%
X/X
15%
2/1
8%
2/2
8%
2/X
10%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
39%
Home Win
39%
-0.3pp
29%
Draw
28%
+1.1pp
32%
Away Win
32%
-0.9pp
58%
Under 2.5
56%
+1.9pp
42%
Over 2.5
44%
-1.9pp
50%
BTTS Yes
50%
+0.1pp
50%
BTTS No
50%
-0.1pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Shimizu S-Pulse EU Bookmakers 43%
Head to Head
AWAY Fagiano Okayama EU Bookmakers 36%
-7% / -4% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +7% / +7%
1.27/1.19 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.23/1.30
+0% / -14% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -25% / +53%
51% Ball Possession 49%
13 Total Shots 10
4 Shots on Target 3
6 Corners 4
332 · 78% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 315 · 75%
20.8 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 20.7
17.3 Crosses 19.6
1.1 Yellow Cards 1.2
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Shimizu S-Pulse
3W-2D-1L
AWAY Fagiano Okayama
1.17 Avg Goals (FT) 0.67
1.50 xG 1.81
56% Ball Possession 44%
13 Total Shots 11
5 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 4
425 Passes 230
80% Pass Accuracy 70%
27 Box Touches 34
18 Crosses 21
1 Yellow Cards 1
06.12.2025 Shimizu S-Pulse Shimizu S-Pulse 1-2 HT 0-0 Fagiano Okayama Fagiano Okayama JAP
02.03.2025 Fagiano Okayama Fagiano Okayama 1-1 HT 0-0 Shimizu S-Pulse Shimizu S-Pulse JAP
30.06.2024 Shimizu S-Pulse Shimizu S-Pulse 3-1 HT 1-1 Fagiano Okayama Fagiano Okayama JAP2
28.04.2024 Fagiano Okayama Fagiano Okayama 0-1 HT 0-1 Shimizu S-Pulse Shimizu S-Pulse JAP2
29.07.2023 Shimizu S-Pulse Shimizu S-Pulse 1-0 HT 0-0 Fagiano Okayama Fagiano Okayama JAP2
26.02.2023 Fagiano Okayama Fagiano Okayama 0-0 HT 0-0 Shimizu S-Pulse Shimizu S-Pulse JAP2
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Shimizu S-Pulse
1-1
AWAY Fagiano Okayama
2.04 xG 1.47
62% Ball Possession 38%
19 Total Shots 13
5 Shots on Target 5
7 Corners 7
355 Passes 196
75% Pass Accuracy 66%
49 Box Touches 17
31 Crosses 17
0 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH Shimizu S-Pulse vs Fagiano Okayama
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Shimizu S-Pulse and Fagiano Okayama shared the points in a 1-1 draw. Half-time: 0-0.

We called this one close before kick-off — 39% / 29% / 32% — and a draw is about as on-script as that read gets. The goals side of the card held up too — under 2.5 goals (58%) came in.

On the day, Shimizu S-Pulse had 62% of the ball to Fagiano Okayama's 38%, shots finished 19-13, expected goals 2.04 to 1.47.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Shimizu S-Pulse had the better of it with 3 wins, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 1.17 goals for Shimizu S-Pulse and 0.67 for Fagiano Okayama.

What was the final score of Shimizu S-Pulse vs Fagiano Okayama?

Shimizu S-Pulse 1-1 Fagiano Okayama in the Japan - J1 League on 14/03/2026. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Shimizu S-Pulse vs Fagiano Okayama?

Before kick-off our model rated a Shimizu S-Pulse win the most likely single outcome at about 39%, with the full match-result split Shimizu S-Pulse 39%, draw 29%, Fagiano Okayama 32%. The final score 1-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Under 2.5 — while Match Result (Shimizu S-Pulse) went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Shimizu S-Pulse) ✓ Under 2.5
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