Gil Vicente U23 1-0 Estrela U23 — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Portugal - U23 National Championship, 14 Apr 2026

📅14/04/2026 · 🕒17:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-1 2nd Score 1-2
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
49%
1.76
Draw
24%
3.64
Away
27%
3.63
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
38%
2.18
Over 2.5
62%
1.62
Both Teams to Score
Yes
54%
1.61
No
46%
2.16
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
22%
2-3 Goals
40%
4-5 Goals
27%
6+ Goals
11%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
32%
1/2
6%
1/X
8%
X/1
10%
X/2
11%
X/X
8%
2/1
7%
2/2
11%
2/X
7%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
49%
Home Win
52%
-3.0pp
24%
Draw
24%
-0.2pp
27%
Away Win
24%
+3.3pp
38%
Under 2.5
42%
-4.0pp
62%
Over 2.5
58%
+4.0pp
54%
BTTS Yes
58%
-4.1pp
46%
BTTS No
42%
+4.1pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Gil Vicente U23 EU Bookmakers 57%
Head to Head
AWAY Estrela U23 EU Bookmakers 28%
+7% / +7% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -2% / -2%
2.86/1.75 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.27/1.73
+72% / -41% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +5% / -10%
47% Ball Possession 53%
12 Total Shots 12
5 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 5
328 · 80% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 373 · 79%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
1.5 Yellow Cards 1.7
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Gil Vicente U23
1W-2D-1L
AWAY Estrela U23
1.50 Avg Goals (FT) 1.25
52% Ball Possession 48%
16 Total Shots 11
6 Shots on Target 4
7 Corners 5
1 Yellow Cards 2
03.02.2026 Estrela U23 Estrela U23 1-1 HT 1-0 Gil Vicente U23 Gil Vicente U23 PORU23
22.04.2025 Estrela U23 Estrela U23 0-2 Gil Vicente U23 Gil Vicente U23 PORU23
11.02.2025 Gil Vicente U23 Gil Vicente U23 0-1 HT 0-0 Estrela U23 Estrela U23 PORU23
27.02.2024 Gil Vicente U23 Gil Vicente U23 3-3 HT 0-2 Estrela U23 Estrela U23 PORU23
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Gil Vicente U23
1-0
AWAY Estrela U23
59% Ball Possession 41%
20 Total Shots 10
4 Shots on Target 2
8 Corners 4
4 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Gil Vicente U23 vs Estrela U23
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Gil Vicente U23 squeezed past Estrela U23 1-0. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

As we said in the preview, our model had Gil Vicente U23 as the likeliest winner at 49%, and the 1-0 landed on that lead. The goals read — over 2.5 goals (62%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Gil Vicente U23 had 59% of the ball to Estrela U23's 41%, shots finished 20-10.

For context: across their last 4 meetings in our records, honours were even at 1 apiece, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 1.50 goals for Gil Vicente U23 and 1.25 for Estrela U23.

What was the final score of Gil Vicente U23 vs Estrela U23?

Gil Vicente U23 1-0 Estrela U23 in the Portugal - U23 National Championship on 14/04/2026. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Gil Vicente U23 vs Estrela U23?

Before kick-off our model rated a Gil Vicente U23 win the most likely single outcome at about 49%, with the full match-result split Gil Vicente U23 49%, draw 24%, Estrela U23 27%. The final score 1-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Gil Vicente U23) — while Over 2.5, BTTS Yes went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Gil Vicente U23) ✗ Over 2.5 ✗ BTTS Yes
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