Accrington Stanley 0-1 Crewe Alexandra — Result, Statistics & Match Review — England - 2nd Division, 14 Sep 2024

📅14/09/2024 · 🕒17:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 2nd Score 1-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
34%
2.27
Draw
28%
3.35
Away
38%
2.69
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
52%
1.86
Over 2.5
48%
1.86
Both Teams to Score
Yes
50%
1.7
No
50%
2.03
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✓
27%
3.3
2-3 Goals
42%
1.78
4-5 Goals
23%
3.58
6+ Goals
8%
14.3
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 3.3 — our 27% vs market 24.8%. Landed.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
17%
3.41
1/2
5%
30.0
1/X
6%
13.4
X/1
11%
5.14
X/2
12%
5.77
X/X
12%
4.7
2/1
7%
27.5
2/2
20%
4.01
2/X
10%
13.55
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
35%
Home Win
40%
-5.6pp
28%
Draw
26%
+1.3pp
38%
Away Win
34%
+4.2pp
52%
Under 2.5
50%
+2.3pp
48%
Over 2.5
50%
-2.3pp
50%
BTTS Yes
55%
-5.2pp
50%
BTTS No
45%
+5.2pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Accrington Stanley EU Bookmakers 44%
Head to Head
AWAY Crewe Alexandra EU Bookmakers 37%
+4% / -11% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -3% / +1%
1.64/1.10 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.30/1.11
+15% / -6% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -23% / +5%
51% Ball Possession 49%
12 Total Shots 11
5 Shots on Target 5
6 Corners 6
286 · 72% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 275 · 69%
22.7 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 20.9
24.3 Crosses 19.2
2.3 Yellow Cards 1.7
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Accrington Stanley
3W-2D-1L
AWAY Crewe Alexandra
1.50 Avg Goals (FT) 1.00
1.62 xG 1.02
47% Ball Possession 53%
14 Total Shots 11
5 Shots on Target 4
3 Corners 6
216 Passes 256
64% Pass Accuracy 67%
19 Box Touches 18
18 Crosses 18
2 Yellow Cards 2
06.04.2024 Accrington Stanley Accrington Stanley 0-0 HT 0-0 Crewe Alexandra Crewe Alexandra İN2
16.12.2023 Crewe Alexandra Crewe Alexandra 3-3 HT 2-1 Accrington Stanley Accrington Stanley İN2
12.02.2022 Accrington Stanley Accrington Stanley 4-1 HT 1-0 Crewe Alexandra Crewe Alexandra İN1
21.08.2021 Crewe Alexandra Crewe Alexandra 0-1 HT 0-1 Accrington Stanley Accrington Stanley İN1
23.02.2021 Crewe Alexandra Crewe Alexandra 2-0 HT 1-0 Accrington Stanley Accrington Stanley İN1
24.11.2020 Accrington Stanley Accrington Stanley 1-0 HT 0-0 Crewe Alexandra Crewe Alexandra İN1
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Accrington Stanley
0-1
AWAY Crewe Alexandra
0.29 xG 0.39
56% Ball Possession 44%
5 Total Shots 7
1 Shots on Target 3
3 Corners 1
259 Passes 168
68% Pass Accuracy 56%
12 Box Touches 7
18 Crosses 9
1 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Accrington Stanley vs Crewe Alexandra
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Crewe Alexandra edged past Accrington Stanley 1-0 away from home. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

We called this one close before kick-off — 35% / 28% / 38% — and on the day Crewe Alexandra made the difference.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 48% and both teams to score was close to even at 50%.

On the day, Accrington Stanley had 56% of the ball to Crewe Alexandra's 44%, shots finished 5-7, expected goals 0.29 to 0.39.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Accrington Stanley had the better of it with 3 wins, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 1.50 goals for Accrington Stanley and 1.00 for Crewe Alexandra.

What was the final score of Accrington Stanley vs Crewe Alexandra?

Accrington Stanley 0-1 Crewe Alexandra in the England - 2nd Division on 14/09/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Accrington Stanley vs Crewe Alexandra?

Before kick-off our model rated an Crewe Alexandra win the most likely single outcome at about 38%, with the full match-result split Accrington Stanley 35%, draw 28%, Crewe Alexandra 38%. The final score 0-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Crewe Alexandra), Under 2.5 — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Crewe Alexandra) ✓ Under 2.5
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