Heracles 1-2 AZ Alkmaar — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Netherlands - Eredivisie, 14 Sep 2025

📅14/09/2025 · 🕒15:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-2 2nd Score 1-3
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
21%
4.13
Draw
22%
3.94
Away
57%
1.62
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
44%
2.38
Over 2.5
56%
1.52
Both Teams to Score
Yes
56%
1.56
No
44%
2.27
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
21%
4.82
2-3 Goals
39%
1.91
4-5 Goals
27%
2.65
6+ Goals
13%
6.74
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
9%
7.39
1/2
9%
19.2
1/X
6%
15.5
X/1
8%
10.3
X/2 EV+ ✓
25%
4.32
X/X
7%
6.42
2/1
5%
34.5
2/2
23%
1.98
2/X
8%
14.1
Value flag · X/2 at 4.32 — our 25% vs market 18.1%. Landed.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
21%
Home Win
21%
+0.4pp
22%
Draw
22%
-0.1pp
57%
Away Win
57%
-0.2pp
44%
Under 2.5
38%
+5.9pp
56%
Over 2.5
62%
-5.9pp
56%
BTTS Yes
60%
-3.7pp
44%
BTTS No
40%
+3.7pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Heracles EU Bookmakers 24%
Head to Head
AWAY AZ Alkmaar EU Bookmakers 62%
+8% / +19% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -3% / -5%
1.23/1.60 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.69/1.17
+15% / +33% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -18% / +6%
45% Ball Possession 55%
10 Total Shots 15
4 Shots on Target 5
4 Corners 5
312 · 76% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 392 · 81%
17.5 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 31.5
18.7 Crosses 17.7
3.0 Yellow Cards 1.9
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Heracles
2W-2D-2L
AWAY AZ Alkmaar
1.67 Avg Goals (FT) 1.00
1.25 xG 1.68
41% Ball Possession 59%
9 Total Shots 17
3 Shots on Target 5
3 Corners 8
301 Passes 469
78% Pass Accuracy 84%
15 Box Touches 41
15 Crosses 20
3 Yellow Cards 1
13.04.2025 Heracles Heracles 1-0 HT 0-0 AZ Alkmaar AZ Alkmaar HOL
27.02.2025 Heracles Heracles 2-2 HT 1-2 AZ Alkmaar AZ Alkmaar HOK
01.12.2024 AZ Alkmaar AZ Alkmaar 1-0 HT 0-0 Heracles Heracles HOL
03.04.2024 Heracles Heracles 5-0 HT 3-0 AZ Alkmaar AZ Alkmaar HOL
28.09.2023 AZ Alkmaar AZ Alkmaar 1-1 HT 1-0 Heracles Heracles HOL
19.02.2022 AZ Alkmaar AZ Alkmaar 2-1 HT 1-1 Heracles Heracles HOL
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Heracles
1-2
AWAY AZ Alkmaar
0.76 xG 3.18
52% Ball Possession 48%
19 Total Shots 25
6 Shots on Target 8
6 Corners 9
335 Passes 319
84% Pass Accuracy 85%
18 Box Touches 27
24 Crosses 18
1 Yellow Cards 5
FAQ Heracles vs AZ Alkmaar
Match summary & frequently asked questions

AZ Alkmaar edged past Heracles 2-1 away from home in the Netherlands - Eredivisie on 14 Sep 2025. The game was level at 1-1 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 56% and both teams to score was close to even at 56%.

On the day, Heracles had 52% of the ball to AZ Alkmaar's 48%, shots finished 19-25, expected goals 0.76 to 3.18.

Across their last 6 meetings in our records, honours are even at 2 apiece, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 1.67 goals for Heracles and 1.00 for AZ Alkmaar.

What was the final score of Heracles vs AZ Alkmaar?

Heracles 1-2 AZ Alkmaar in the Netherlands - Eredivisie on 14/09/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Heracles vs AZ Alkmaar?

Before kick-off our model rated an AZ Alkmaar win the most likely single outcome at about 57%, with the full match-result split Heracles 21%, draw 22%, AZ Alkmaar 57%. The final score 1-2 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (AZ Alkmaar), Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (AZ Alkmaar) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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