Motagua 3-3 Lobos UPNFM — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Honduras - National League Apertura, 14 Sep 2025

📅14/09/2025 · 🕒04:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 3-1 2nd Score 2-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
70%
1.42
Draw
20%
4.49
Away
10%
5.79
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
43%
2.23
Over 2.5
57%
1.59
Both Teams to Score
Yes
56%
1.81
No
44%
1.9
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
21%
2-3 Goals
35%
4-5 Goals
27%
6+ Goals
17%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
39%
1/2
3%
1/X
8%
X/1
21%
X/2
4%
X/X
8%
2/1
10%
2/2
3%
2/X
4%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
70%
Home Win
66%
+3.3pp
20%
Draw
19%
+0.6pp
10%
Away Win
14%
-3.9pp
43%
Under 2.5
41%
+1.6pp
57%
Over 2.5
59%
-1.6pp
56%
BTTS Yes
51%
+5.1pp
44%
BTTS No
49%
-5.1pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Motagua EU Bookmakers 70%
Head to Head
AWAY Lobos UPNFM EU Bookmakers 17%
+1% / -12% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -4% / -1%
2.14/1.13 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.71/1.81
+8% / -25% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -25% / -3%
57% Ball Possession 43%
17 Total Shots 8
6 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 4
381 · 84% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 316 · 79%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
1.8 Yellow Cards 3.3
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Motagua
5W-0D-1L
AWAY Lobos UPNFM
3.00 Avg Goals (FT) 0.67
08.04.2025 Lobos UPNFM Lobos UPNFM 2-1 HT 2-1 Motagua Motagua HON
07.02.2025 Motagua Motagua 5-0 HT 3-0 Lobos UPNFM Lobos UPNFM HON
29.09.2024 Lobos UPNFM Lobos UPNFM 0-2 HT 0-2 Motagua Motagua HON
27.07.2024 Motagua Motagua 4-2 HT 1-1 Lobos UPNFM Lobos UPNFM HON
15.04.2024 Motagua Motagua 4-0 HT 2-0 Lobos UPNFM Lobos UPNFM HON
19.02.2024 Lobos UPNFM Lobos UPNFM 0-2 HT 0-2 Motagua Motagua HON
POST-MATCH Motagua vs Lobos UPNFM
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Motagua and Lobos UPNFM shared the points in a 3-3 draw. Half-time: 1-2. 6 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

By our pre-match numbers this was an upset: we had Motagua at 70% and the game still went the other way. Single results are noisy — probabilities earn their keep across thousands of matches, not one. The goals side of the card held up too — over 2.5 goals (57%), both teams to score (56%) came in.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Motagua had the better of it with 5 wins. Those games averaged 3.00 goals for Motagua and 0.67 for Lobos UPNFM.

What was the final score of Motagua vs Lobos UPNFM?

Motagua 3-3 Lobos UPNFM in the Honduras - National League Apertura on 14/09/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Motagua vs Lobos UPNFM?

Before kick-off our model rated a Motagua win the most likely single outcome at about 70%, with the full match-result split Motagua 70%, draw 20%, Lobos UPNFM 10%. The final score 3-3 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — while Match Result (Motagua) went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Motagua) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
Want to know how this prediction was produced? Read how we price a match →
Want to test this kind of bet across 26 seasons yourself? Open Match Studio →
HON More Honduras - National League Apertura
14 Sep 2025
02:15 CD Victoria vs Juticalpa Analysis →