Sarpsborg 08 2-1 Sandefjord — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Norway - Eliteserien, 14 Sep 2025

📅14/09/2025 · 🕒18:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 2nd Score 2-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
38%
2.09
Draw
27%
3.54
Away
35%
2.9
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
49%
2.59
Over 2.5
51%
1.45
Both Teams to Score
Yes
57%
1.39
No
43%
2.75
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
26%
5.79
2-3 Goals
40%
2.06
4-5 Goals
23%
2.61
6+ Goals
11%
5.94
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
17%
2.86
1/2
6%
25.5
1/X
6%
11.8
X/1
12%
5.52
X/2
14%
7.01
X/X
13%
5.93
2/1 EV+ ✗
10%
20.8
2/2
14%
4.15
2/X
8%
12.15
Value flag · 2/1 at 20.8 — our 10% vs market 2.5%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
38%
Home Win
44%
-5.6pp
27%
Draw
25%
+1.8pp
35%
Away Win
31%
+3.9pp
49%
Under 2.5
35%
+14.3pp
51%
Over 2.5
65%
-14.3pp
57%
BTTS Yes
68%
-10.9pp
43%
BTTS No
32%
+10.9pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Sarpsborg 08 EU Bookmakers 48%
Head to Head
AWAY Sandefjord EU Bookmakers 34%
-9% / -13% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -11% / -18%
1.49/1.28 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.63/1.82
-12% / -14% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +30% / -26%
49% Ball Possession 51%
12 Total Shots 11
4 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 4
350 · 79% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 360 · 79%
27.4 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 23.2
23.2 Crosses 18.1
1.8 Yellow Cards 1.5
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Sarpsborg 08
3W-0D-3L
AWAY Sandefjord
1.83 Avg Goals (FT) 2.33
1.98 xG 1.73
53% Ball Possession 47%
13 Total Shots 18
6 Shots on Target 6
3 Corners 6
376 Passes 343
84% Pass Accuracy 83%
29 Box Touches 30
14 Crosses 16
2 Yellow Cards 2
26.07.2025 Sandefjord Sandefjord 3-2 HT 2-0 Sarpsborg 08 Sarpsborg 08 NOR
07.05.2025 Sarpsborg 08 Sarpsborg 08 3-1 HT 2-0 Sandefjord Sandefjord NOK
04.08.2024 Sarpsborg 08 Sarpsborg 08 2-1 HT 1-0 Sandefjord Sandefjord NOR
12.05.2024 Sandefjord Sandefjord 4-1 HT 1-0 Sarpsborg 08 Sarpsborg 08 NOR
27.01.2024 Sarpsborg 08 Sarpsborg 08 2-0 HT 2-0 Sandefjord Sandefjord HAZ
06.08.2023 Sandefjord Sandefjord 5-1 HT 2-1 Sarpsborg 08 Sarpsborg 08 NOR
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Sarpsborg 08
2-1
AWAY Sandefjord
1.16 xG 2.04
35% Ball Possession 65%
9 Total Shots 24
5 Shots on Target 8
3 Corners 6
231 Passes 504
76% Pass Accuracy 88%
13 Box Touches 34
11 Crosses 31
3 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH Sarpsborg 08 vs Sandefjord
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Sarpsborg 08 nicked a narrow win over Sandefjord 2-1. Half-time: 2-0.

Our pre-match split (38% / 27% / 35%) promised a tight game; Sarpsborg 08 found the edge the numbers couldn't. We had also flagged both teams to score (57%), and that read landed as well.

On the day, Sarpsborg 08 had 35% of the ball to Sandefjord's 65%, shots finished 9-24, expected goals 1.16 to 2.04 — on chances, Sandefjord could feel hard done by.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, honours were even at 3 apiece. Those games averaged 1.83 goals for Sarpsborg 08 and 2.33 for Sandefjord.

What was the final score of Sarpsborg 08 vs Sandefjord?

Sarpsborg 08 2-1 Sandefjord in the Norway - Eliteserien on 14/09/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Sarpsborg 08 vs Sandefjord?

Before kick-off our model rated a Sarpsborg 08 win the most likely single outcome at about 38%, with the full match-result split Sarpsborg 08 38%, draw 27%, Sandefjord 35%. The final score 2-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Sarpsborg 08), Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Sarpsborg 08) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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