Türkiye 4-1 Gürcistan — Result, Statistics & Match Review — World Cup Qualifiers, 14 Oct 2025

📅14/10/2025 · 🕒21:45 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-1 2nd Score 3-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
66%
1.57
Draw
17%
4.08
Away
17%
4.31
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
44%
2.43
Over 2.5
56%
1.51
Both Teams to Score
Yes
51%
1.56
No
49%
2.27
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
19%
4.96
2-3 Goals
43%
1.95
4-5 Goals
25%
2.67
6+ Goals
13%
6.74
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
34%
1.99
1/2
4%
35.0
1/X
7%
14.35
X/1
21%
4.37
X/2
4%
10.55
X/X
5%
6.56
2/1 EV+ ✗
11%
19.45
2/2
8%
7.58
2/X
6%
15.85
Value flag · 2/1 at 19.45 — our 11% vs market 2.8%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
💡 For the risk lovers: Home Win ★★ — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
66%
Home Win
59%
+7.2pp
17%
Draw
21%
-4.0pp
17%
Away Win
20%
-3.2pp
44%
Under 2.5
38%
+6.4pp
56%
Over 2.5
62%
-6.4pp
51%
BTTS Yes
60%
-9.0pp
49%
BTTS No
40%
+9.0pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Türkiye EU Bookmakers 64%
Head to Head
AWAY Gürcistan EU Bookmakers 23%
-21% / -21% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +13% / +13%
1.29/1.21 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.27/2.20
-4% / -64% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +82% / +22%
53% Ball Possession 47%
14 Total Shots 11
5 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 4
378 · 82% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 290 · 77%
22.5 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 20.0
17.4 Crosses 10.0
3.4 Yellow Cards 5.0
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Türkiye
4W-1D-1L
AWAY Gürcistan
2.50 Avg Goals (FT) 1.33
1.87 xG 1.25
51% Ball Possession 49%
14 Total Shots 14
6 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 6
404 Passes 365
86% Pass Accuracy 86%
16 Box Touches 28
11 Crosses 22
2 Yellow Cards 2
04.09.2025 Gürcistan Gürcistan 2-3 HT 0-2 Türkiye Türkiye DKE
18.06.2024 Türkiye Türkiye 3-1 HT 1-1 Gürcistan Gürcistan AVR
24.05.2012 Türkiye Türkiye 3-1 HT 2-0 Gürcistan Gürcistan HAZ
07.02.2007 Gürcistan Gürcistan 1-0 HT 0-0 Türkiye Türkiye HAZ
30.03.2005 Gürcistan Gürcistan 2-5 HT 2-3 Türkiye Türkiye DKE
04.09.2004 Türkiye Türkiye 1-1 HT 0-0 Gürcistan Gürcistan DKE
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Türkiye
4-1
AWAY Gürcistan
1.95 xG 1.08
45% Ball Possession 55%
10 Total Shots 12
6 Shots on Target 3
7 Corners 6
343 Passes 443
79% Pass Accuracy 84%
21 Box Touches 19
12 Crosses 17
1 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH Türkiye vs Gürcistan
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Türkiye ran out comfortable winners over Gürcistan 4-1. Half-time: 3-0. 5 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

As we said in the preview, our model had Türkiye as the likeliest winner at 66%, and the 4-1 landed on that lead. We had also flagged over 2.5 goals (56%), and that read landed as well.

On the day, Türkiye had 45% of the ball to Gürcistan's 55%, shots finished 10-12, expected goals 1.95 to 1.08.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Türkiye had the better of it with 4 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 2.50 goals for Türkiye and 1.33 for Gürcistan.

What was the final score of Türkiye vs Gürcistan?

Türkiye 4-1 Gürcistan in the World Cup Qualifiers on 14/10/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Türkiye vs Gürcistan?

Before kick-off our model rated a Türkiye win the most likely single outcome at about 66%, with the full match-result split Türkiye 66%, draw 17%, Gürcistan 17%. The final score 4-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Türkiye), Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Türkiye) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
Want to know how this prediction was produced? Read how we price a match →
Want to test this kind of bet across 26 seasons yourself? Open Match Studio →
DKE More World Cup Qualifiers
14 Oct 2025
03:00 Honduras vs Haiti Analysis →
05:00 Kosta Rika vs Nikaragua Analysis →
16:00 Seyşeller vs Gambiya Analysis →
19:00 Estonya vs Moldova Analysis →
19:00 Nijerya vs Benin Analysis →
19:00 Güney Afrika vs Ruanda Analysis →