Trofense 3-2 Fafe — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Portugal - 3rd Division, 14 Dec 2024

📅14/12/2024 · 🕒20:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 0-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
38%
2.27
Draw
24%
3.18
Away
38%
2.79
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
55%
1.67
Over 2.5
45%
2.1
Both Teams to Score
Yes
48%
1.88
No
52%
1.82
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
30%
2-3 Goals
42%
4-5 Goals
20%
6+ Goals
8%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
18%
1/2
6%
1/X
6%
X/1
13%
X/2
11%
X/X
12%
2/1
7%
2/2
20%
2/X
7%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
38%
Home Win
40%
-2.0pp
24%
Draw
28%
-3.5pp
38%
Away Win
32%
+5.5pp
55%
Under 2.5
56%
-1.4pp
45%
Over 2.5
44%
+1.4pp
48%
BTTS Yes
49%
-1.4pp
52%
BTTS No
51%
+1.4pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Trofense EU Bookmakers 44%
Head to Head
AWAY Fafe EU Bookmakers 36%
+14% / +14% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +12% / +12%
1.24/0.78 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.14/1.52
-3% / +32% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +7% / -16%
50% Ball Possession 50%
11 Total Shots 11
5 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 5
243 · 74% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 317 · 79%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
2.4 Yellow Cards 3.3
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Trofense
1W-0D-4L
AWAY Fafe
1.00 Avg Goals (FT) 1.80
54% Ball Possession 46%
15 Total Shots 10
5 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 3
3 Yellow Cards 3
31.08.2024 Fafe Fafe 1-0 HT 0-0 Trofense Trofense POR3
27.04.2024 Fafe Fafe 2-3 HT 1-2 Trofense Trofense POR3
24.02.2024 Trofense Trofense 1-3 HT 1-2 Fafe Fafe POR3
13.01.2024 Trofense Trofense 0-1 HT 0-0 Fafe Fafe POR3
01.10.2023 Fafe Fafe 2-1 HT 2-0 Trofense Trofense POR3
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Trofense
3-2
AWAY Fafe
60% Ball Possession 40%
21 Total Shots 7
15 Shots on Target 5
16 Corners 6
4 Yellow Cards 3
POST-MATCH Trofense vs Fafe
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Trofense edged past Fafe 3-2. It was 1-2 at half-time, meaning the result turned around in the second half. 5 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

Our pre-match split (38% / 24% / 38%) promised a tight game; Trofense found the edge the numbers couldn't. The goals read — under 2.5 goals (55%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Trofense had 60% of the ball to Fafe's 40%, shots finished 21-7.

For context: across their last 5 meetings in our records, Fafe led the recent series with 4 wins. Those games averaged 1.00 goals for Trofense and 1.80 for Fafe.

What was the final score of Trofense vs Fafe?

Trofense 3-2 Fafe in the Portugal - 3rd Division on 14/12/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Trofense vs Fafe?

Before kick-off our model rated a Trofense win the most likely single outcome at about 38%, with the full match-result split Trofense 38%, draw 24%, Fafe 38%. The final score 3-2 went against our main leads this time — single matches are noisy by nature; our accuracy is measured across thousands of predictions, not one result.

◐ Match Result — model had it level (38/24/38) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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