Gubbio 1-3 Ascoli — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Italy - Serie C, 15 Mar 2026

📅15/03/2026 · 🕒16:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 0-1 2nd Score 0-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
23%
3.87
Draw
28%
3.11
Away
49%
1.89
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
59%
1.48
Over 2.5
41%
2.51
Both Teams to Score
Yes
47%
2.19
No
53%
1.6
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
38%
2.11
2-3 Goals
37%
1.73
4-5 Goals
18%
5.21
6+ Goals
7%
34.0
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
14%
1/2
8%
1/X
6%
X/1
4%
X/2
17%
X/X
19%
2/1
4%
2/2
24%
2/X
4%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
23%
Home Win
22%
+0.3pp
28%
Draw
29%
-0.7pp
49%
Away Win
49%
+0.4pp
59%
Under 2.5
64%
-4.4pp
41%
Over 2.5
36%
+4.5pp
47%
BTTS Yes
42%
+5.3pp
53%
BTTS No
58%
-5.3pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Gubbio EU Bookmakers 26%
Head to Head
AWAY Ascoli EU Bookmakers 53%
-6% / -6% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +6% / +6%
0.62/1.27 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.70/0.95
-36% / +6% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +18% / -2%
45% Ball Possession 55%
10 Total Shots 13
4 Shots on Target 5
4 Corners 5
290 · 78% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 413 · 83%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
2.7 Yellow Cards 2.7
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Gubbio
0W-3D-3L
AWAY Ascoli
1.17 Avg Goals (FT) 1.67
46% Ball Possession 54%
8 Total Shots 11
3 Shots on Target 4
3 Corners 4
3 Yellow Cards 2
07.11.2025 Ascoli Ascoli 1-1 HT 1-1 Gubbio Gubbio İTC
05.04.2025 Gubbio Gubbio 0-0 HT 0-0 Ascoli Ascoli İTC
24.11.2024 Ascoli Ascoli 1-0 HT 1-0 Gubbio Gubbio İTC
11.08.2024 Ascoli Ascoli 2-1 HT 1-0 Gubbio Gubbio İTCK
26.10.2014 Ascoli Ascoli 2-2 HT 0-0 Gubbio Gubbio İTC
09.08.2014 Gubbio Gubbio 3-4 HT 2-1 Ascoli Ascoli İTCK
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Gubbio
1-3
AWAY Ascoli
41% Ball Possession 59%
12 Total Shots 9
2 Shots on Target 4
3 Corners 3
1 Yellow Cards 3
POST-MATCH Gubbio vs Ascoli
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Ascoli beat Gubbio 3-1 away from home. Half-time: 0-1.

As we highlighted before kick-off, our model had Ascoli as the likeliest winner at 49%, and the 3-1 landed on that lead. The goals read — under 2.5 goals (59%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Gubbio had 41% of the ball to Ascoli's 59%, shots finished 12-9.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Ascoli led the recent series with 3 wins, 3 drawn. Those games averaged 1.17 goals for Gubbio and 1.67 for Ascoli.

What was the final score of Gubbio vs Ascoli?

Gubbio 1-3 Ascoli in the Italy - Serie C on 15/03/2026. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Gubbio vs Ascoli?

Before kick-off our model rated an Ascoli win the most likely single outcome at about 49%, with the full match-result split Gubbio 23%, draw 28%, Ascoli 49%. The final score 1-3 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Ascoli) — while Under 2.5, BTTS No went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Ascoli) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
Want to know how this prediction was produced? Read how we price a match →
Want to test this kind of bet across 26 seasons yourself? Open Match Studio →
İTC More Italy - Serie C
15 Mar 2026
14:30 Forli vs Juventus II Analysis →
14:30 Crotone vs Salernitana Analysis →
16:30 Triestina vs Pro Vercelli Analysis →
16:30 Arezzo vs Perugia Analysis →
16:30 Team Altamura vs Catania Analysis →
16:30 Benevento vs Foggia Calcio Analysis →