Arezzo 1-1 Perugia — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Italy - Serie C, 15 Mar 2026

📅15/03/2026 · 🕒16:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 2-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
55%
1.64
Draw
23%
3.45
Away
22%
5.11
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
51%
1.62
Over 2.5
49%
2.18
Both Teams to Score
Yes
47%
2.16
No
53%
1.61
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
29%
2.43
2-3 Goals
39%
1.7
4-5 Goals
22%
4.32
6+ Goals
10%
23.1
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
25%
1/2
4%
1/X
10%
X/1
24%
X/2
7%
X/X
8%
2/1
7%
2/2
10%
2/X
5%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
56%
Home Win
57%
-1.7pp
23%
Draw
26%
-3.1pp
22%
Away Win
17%
+4.8pp
51%
Under 2.5
58%
-7.3pp
49%
Over 2.5
42%
+7.3pp
47%
BTTS Yes
42%
+5.1pp
53%
BTTS No
58%
-5.1pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Arezzo EU Bookmakers 61%
Head to Head
AWAY Perugia EU Bookmakers 20%
-6% / -7% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -2% / -2%
1.41/0.90 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.53/1.23
-10% / -6% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -40% / +22%
55% Ball Possession 45%
14 Total Shots 8
5 Shots on Target 3
7 Corners 3
406 · 80% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 234 · 67%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
2.5 Yellow Cards 2.3
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Arezzo
3W-1D-2L
AWAY Perugia
1.00 Avg Goals (FT) 1.00
53% Ball Possession 47%
13 Total Shots 9
4 Shots on Target 3
5 Corners 5
3 Yellow Cards 3
09.11.2025 Perugia Perugia 0-0 HT 0-0 Arezzo Arezzo İTC
05.04.2025 Arezzo Arezzo 2-0 HT 1-0 Perugia Perugia İTC
27.11.2024 Perugia Perugia 1-2 Arezzo Arezzo İTCK
22.11.2024 Perugia Perugia 2-0 HT 1-0 Arezzo Arezzo İTC
18.12.2023 Arezzo Arezzo 2-0 HT 1-0 Perugia Perugia İTC
31.01.2021 Perugia Perugia 3-0 HT 2-0 Arezzo Arezzo İTC
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Arezzo
1-1
AWAY Perugia
64% Ball Possession 36%
17 Total Shots 2
6 Shots on Target 2
10 Corners 5
POST-MATCH Arezzo vs Perugia
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Arezzo and Perugia couldn't be separated, finishing 1-1. Half-time: 0-1.

By our pre-match numbers this was an upset: we had Arezzo at 56% and the game still went the other way. Single results are noisy — probabilities earn their keep across thousands of matches, not one.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 49% and both teams to score was close to even at 47%.

On the day, Arezzo had 64% of the ball to Perugia's 36%, shots finished 17-2.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Arezzo had the better of it with 3 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.00 goals for Arezzo and 1.00 for Perugia.

What was the final score of Arezzo vs Perugia?

Arezzo 1-1 Perugia in the Italy - Serie C on 15/03/2026. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Arezzo vs Perugia?

Before kick-off our model rated a Arezzo win the most likely single outcome at about 56%, with the full match-result split Arezzo 56%, draw 23%, Perugia 22%. The final score 1-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Under 2.5 — while Match Result (Arezzo), BTTS No went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Arezzo) ✓ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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