Hajduk Split 2-1 Lokomotiva Zagreb — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Croatia - 1. HNL, 15 Mar 2026

📅15/03/2026 · 🕒17:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-1 2nd Score 3-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
59%
1.57
Draw
20%
3.72
Away
21%
5.11
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
45%
1.86
Over 2.5
55%
1.86
Both Teams to Score
Yes
50%
1.9
No
50%
1.81
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
25%
3.1
2-3 Goals
40%
1.72
4-5 Goals
25%
3.38
6+ Goals
10%
13.25
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
30%
1/2
5%
1/X
5%
X/1
19%
X/2
9%
X/X
8%
2/1
11%
2/2
6%
2/X
7%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
60%
Home Win
60%
-0.2pp
20%
Draw
24%
-3.9pp
21%
Away Win
17%
+4.1pp
45%
Under 2.5
50%
-5.1pp
55%
Over 2.5
50%
+5.1pp
50%
BTTS Yes
49%
+0.8pp
50%
BTTS No
51%
-0.8pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Hajduk Split EU Bookmakers 64%
Head to Head
AWAY Lokomotiva Zagreb EU Bookmakers 20%
-6% / -7% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -2% / +1%
1.47/0.77 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.87/1.47
-6% / +15% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +3% / -26%
53% Ball Possession 47%
15 Total Shots 10
6 Shots on Target 3
6 Corners 4
328 · 79% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 249 · 72%
27.4 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 14.7
20.7 Crosses 18.2
1.9 Yellow Cards 2.9
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Hajduk Split
3W-2D-1L
AWAY Lokomotiva Zagreb
1.83 Avg Goals (FT) 1.17
2.00 xG 1.38
54% Ball Possession 46%
14 Total Shots 13
5 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 6
323 Passes 268
79% Pass Accuracy 74%
26 Box Touches 20
14 Crosses 18
2 Yellow Cards 3
13.12.2025 Lokomotiva Zagreb Lokomotiva Zagreb 1-3 HT 1-1 Hajduk Split Hajduk Split HIR
27.09.2025 Hajduk Split Hajduk Split 2-0 HT 1-0 Lokomotiva Zagreb Lokomotiva Zagreb HIR
13.04.2025 Hajduk Split Hajduk Split 1-1 HT 0-1 Lokomotiva Zagreb Lokomotiva Zagreb HIR
02.02.2025 Lokomotiva Zagreb Lokomotiva Zagreb 3-2 HT 2-1 Hajduk Split Hajduk Split HIR
26.10.2024 Hajduk Split Hajduk Split 2-1 HT 1-1 Lokomotiva Zagreb Lokomotiva Zagreb HIR
11.08.2024 Lokomotiva Zagreb Lokomotiva Zagreb 1-1 HT 0-0 Hajduk Split Hajduk Split HIR
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Hajduk Split
2-1
AWAY Lokomotiva Zagreb
4.24 xG 1.88
46% Ball Possession 54%
21 Total Shots 17
9 Shots on Target 5
5 Corners 10
299 Passes 350
84% Pass Accuracy 83%
36 Box Touches 24
16 Crosses 24
1 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH Hajduk Split vs Lokomotiva Zagreb
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Hajduk Split squeezed past Lokomotiva Zagreb 2-1. Half-time: 2-0.

As our pre-match numbers suggested, our model had Hajduk Split as the likeliest winner at 60%, and the 2-1 landed on that lead. We had also flagged over 2.5 goals (55%), and that read landed as well.

On the day, Hajduk Split had 46% of the ball to Lokomotiva Zagreb's 54%, shots finished 21-17, expected goals 4.24 to 1.88 — an xG gap that size says the one-goal margin undersold Hajduk Split's control.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Hajduk Split had the better of it with 3 wins, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 1.83 goals for Hajduk Split and 1.17 for Lokomotiva Zagreb.

What was the final score of Hajduk Split vs Lokomotiva Zagreb?

Hajduk Split 2-1 Lokomotiva Zagreb in the Croatia - 1. HNL on 15/03/2026. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Hajduk Split vs Lokomotiva Zagreb?

Before kick-off our model rated a Hajduk Split win the most likely single outcome at about 60%, with the full match-result split Hajduk Split 60%, draw 20%, Lokomotiva Zagreb 21%. The final score 2-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Hajduk Split), Over 2.5 — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Hajduk Split) ✓ Over 2.5
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