Rijeka 0-2 Istra 1961 — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Croatia - 1. HNL, 15 Mar 2026

📅15/03/2026 · 🕒19:45 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-1 2nd Score 3-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
64%
1.57
Draw
21%
3.64
Away
15%
4.85
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
44%
1.75
Over 2.5
56%
1.97
Both Teams to Score
Yes
53%
2.03
No
47%
1.7
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
23%
2.8
2-3 Goals
39%
1.7
4-5 Goals EV+ ✗
26%
3.69
6+ Goals
12%
16.35
Value flag · 4-5 Goals at 3.69 — our 26% vs market 20.2%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
41%
1/2
4%
1/X
5%
X/1
15%
X/2
6%
X/X
11%
2/1
8%
2/2
5%
2/X
5%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
64%
Home Win
59%
+5.2pp
21%
Draw
24%
-2.6pp
15%
Away Win
17%
-2.6pp
44%
Under 2.5
53%
-9.5pp
56%
Over 2.5
47%
+9.5pp
53%
BTTS Yes
45%
+7.5pp
47%
BTTS No
55%
-7.5pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Rijeka EU Bookmakers 64%
Head to Head
AWAY Istra 1961 EU Bookmakers 21%
-1% / -6% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +7% / +24%
1.54/0.86 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.03/1.48
+8% / +14% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +12% / +9%
52% Ball Possession 48%
14 Total Shots 9
6 Shots on Target 3
5 Corners 4
331 · 79% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 267 · 76%
24.6 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 16.4
21.1 Crosses 13.0
2.3 Yellow Cards 2.5
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Rijeka
3W-1D-2L
AWAY Istra 1961
1.00 Avg Goals (FT) 0.50
1.14 xG 0.72
48% Ball Possession 52%
12 Total Shots 8
3 Shots on Target 2
5 Corners 2
262 Passes 283
75% Pass Accuracy 76%
20 Box Touches 16
17 Crosses 14
3 Yellow Cards 3
27.09.2025 Rijeka Rijeka 0-0 HT 0-0 Istra 1961 Istra 1961 HIR
19.04.2025 Istra 1961 Istra 1961 2-0 HT 1-0 Rijeka Rijeka HIR
02.04.2025 Rijeka Rijeka 1-0 HT 0-0 Istra 1961 Istra 1961 HIRK
09.02.2025 Rijeka Rijeka 0-1 HT 0-1 Istra 1961 Istra 1961 HIR
03.11.2024 Istra 1961 Istra 1961 0-1 HT 0-0 Rijeka Rijeka HIR
18.08.2024 Rijeka Rijeka 4-0 HT 3-0 Istra 1961 Istra 1961 HIR
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Rijeka
0-2
AWAY Istra 1961
2.66 xG 0.87
71% Ball Possession 29%
29 Total Shots 6
6 Shots on Target 2
11 Corners 0
466 Passes 147
88% Pass Accuracy 62%
39 Box Touches 9
53 Crosses 6
3 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Rijeka vs Istra 1961
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Istra 1961 saw off Rijeka 2-0 away from home.

This one beat our numbers. Rijeka carried 64% before kick-off and it didn't land — a reminder that even strong leads lose regularly. The goals read — over 2.5 goals (56%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Rijeka had 71% of the ball to Istra 1961's 29%, shots finished 29-6, expected goals 2.66 to 0.87 — on chances, Rijeka could feel hard done by.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Rijeka had the better of it with 3 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.00 goals for Rijeka and 0.50 for Istra 1961.

What was the final score of Rijeka vs Istra 1961?

Rijeka 0-2 Istra 1961 in the Croatia - 1. HNL on 15/03/2026. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Rijeka vs Istra 1961?

Before kick-off our model rated a Rijeka win the most likely single outcome at about 64%, with the full match-result split Rijeka 64%, draw 21%, Istra 1961 15%. The final score 0-2 went against our main leads this time — single matches are noisy by nature; our accuracy is measured across thousands of predictions, not one result.

✗ Match Result (Rijeka) ✗ Over 2.5 ✗ BTTS Yes
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