Rijeka 0-0 Istra 1961 — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Croatia - 1. HNL, 27 Sep 2025

📅27/09/2025 · 🕒17:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 0-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
57%
1.82
Draw
26%
3.35
Away
17%
3.83
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
53%
1.78
Over 2.5
47%
1.95
Both Teams to Score
Yes
47%
1.85
No
53%
1.85
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✓
29%
2.85
2-3 Goals
42%
1.72
4-5 Goals
20%
3.68
6+ Goals
9%
16.05
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 2.85 — our 29% vs market 27.8%. Landed.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
32%
1/2
5%
1/X
7%
X/1
14%
X/2
7%
X/X
15%
2/1
11%
2/2
5%
2/X
4%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
57%
Home Win
51%
+6.4pp
26%
Draw
26%
-0.5pp
17%
Away Win
23%
-5.9pp
53%
Under 2.5
52%
+0.9pp
47%
Over 2.5
48%
-0.9pp
47%
BTTS Yes
50%
-3.1pp
53%
BTTS No
50%
+3.1pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Rijeka EU Bookmakers 55%
Head to Head
AWAY Istra 1961 EU Bookmakers 26%
+2% / +6% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +0% / -1%
1.44/0.83 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.06/1.11
+9% / +29% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -15% / +6%
50% Ball Possession 50%
13 Total Shots 10
5 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 4
287 · 74% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 290 · 73%
22.6 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 18.0
22.2 Crosses 15.1
2.0 Yellow Cards 2.6
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Rijeka
4W-0D-2L
AWAY Istra 1961
1.33 Avg Goals (FT) 0.50
0.86 xG 0.73
49% Ball Possession 51%
10 Total Shots 9
3 Shots on Target 2
4 Corners 2
280 Passes 283
75% Pass Accuracy 75%
16 Box Touches 14
14 Crosses 12
3 Yellow Cards 3
19.04.2025 Istra 1961 Istra 1961 2-0 HT 1-0 Rijeka Rijeka HIR
02.04.2025 Rijeka Rijeka 1-0 HT 0-0 Istra 1961 Istra 1961 HIRK
09.02.2025 Rijeka Rijeka 0-1 HT 0-1 Istra 1961 Istra 1961 HIR
03.11.2024 Istra 1961 Istra 1961 0-1 HT 0-0 Rijeka Rijeka HIR
18.08.2024 Rijeka Rijeka 4-0 HT 3-0 Istra 1961 Istra 1961 HIR
14.04.2024 Istra 1961 Istra 1961 0-2 HT 0-1 Rijeka Rijeka HIR
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Rijeka
0-0
AWAY Istra 1961
1.98 xG 0.31
52% Ball Possession 48%
19 Total Shots 5
1 Shots on Target 1
10 Corners 2
249 Passes 237
74% Pass Accuracy 74%
35 Box Touches 21
28 Crosses 21
3 Yellow Cards 0
POST-MATCH Rijeka vs Istra 1961
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Rijeka and Istra 1961 fought out a 0-0 stalemate. Neither side could find a way through.

By our pre-match numbers this was an upset: we had Rijeka at 57% and the game still went the other way. Single results are noisy — probabilities earn their keep across thousands of matches, not one.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 47% and both teams to score was close to even at 47%.

On the day, Rijeka had 52% of the ball to Istra 1961's 48%, shots finished 19-5, expected goals 1.98 to 0.31.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Rijeka had the better of it with 4 wins. Those games averaged 1.33 goals for Rijeka and 0.50 for Istra 1961.

What was the final score of Rijeka vs Istra 1961?

Rijeka 0-0 Istra 1961 in the Croatia - 1. HNL on 27/09/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Rijeka vs Istra 1961?

Before kick-off our model rated a Rijeka win the most likely single outcome at about 57%, with the full match-result split Rijeka 57%, draw 26%, Istra 1961 17%. The final score 0-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Under 2.5, BTTS No — while Match Result (Rijeka) went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Rijeka) ✓ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS No
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