Treaty United 3-0 Finn Harps — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Ireland - 1st Division, 15 May 2026

📅15/05/2026 · 🕒21:45 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 2-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
48%
2.12
Draw
23%
3.18
Away
29%
3.08
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
54%
1.71
Over 2.5
46%
2.03
Both Teams to Score
Yes
44%
1.85
No
56%
1.85
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
33%
2.67
2-3 Goals
35%
1.7
4-5 Goals
22%
3.88
6+ Goals
10%
18.3
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 2.67 — our 33% vs market 29.7%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
17%
1/2
5%
1/X
6%
X/1
23%
X/2
14%
X/X
12%
2/1
7%
2/2
10%
2/X
6%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
💡 For the risk lovers: Home Win ★★ — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
48%
Home Win
43%
+4.7pp
23%
Draw
28%
-4.5pp
29%
Away Win
29%
-0.3pp
54%
Under 2.5
55%
-0.4pp
46%
Over 2.5
45%
+0.4pp
44%
BTTS Yes
50%
-6.0pp
56%
BTTS No
50%
+6.0pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Treaty United EU Bookmakers 47%
Head to Head
AWAY Finn Harps EU Bookmakers 32%
+2% / +1% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +7% / +9%
1.31/0.83 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.99/1.02
-13% / +33% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -9% / +36%
53% Ball Possession 47%
15 Total Shots 9
6 Shots on Target 3
6 Corners 4
299 · 77% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 294 · 75%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
1.8 Yellow Cards 3.5
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Treaty United
3W-1D-2L
AWAY Finn Harps
1.50 Avg Goals (FT) 1.00
54% Ball Possession 46%
12 Total Shots 10
5 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 4
2 Yellow Cards 3
13.03.2026 Finn Harps Finn Harps 2-2 HT 0-2 Treaty United Treaty United İR1
29.08.2025 Finn Harps Finn Harps 1-0 HT 1-0 Treaty United Treaty United İR1
27.06.2025 Treaty United Treaty United 0-1 HT 0-0 Finn Harps Finn Harps İR1
02.05.2025 Finn Harps Finn Harps 0-2 HT 0-1 Treaty United Treaty United İR1
28.02.2025 Treaty United Treaty United 3-1 HT 1-0 Finn Harps Finn Harps İR1
18.10.2024 Finn Harps Finn Harps 1-2 HT 1-0 Treaty United Treaty United İR1
POST-MATCH Treaty United vs Finn Harps
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Treaty United ran out comfortable winners over Finn Harps 3-0. Half-time: 2-0.

As we said in the preview, our model had Treaty United as the likeliest winner at 48%, and the 3-0 landed on that lead. We had also flagged no to both teams scoring (56%), and that read landed as well.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Treaty United had the better of it with 3 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.50 goals for Treaty United and 1.00 for Finn Harps.

What was the final score of Treaty United vs Finn Harps?

Treaty United 3-0 Finn Harps in the Ireland - 1st Division on 15/05/2026. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Treaty United vs Finn Harps?

Before kick-off our model rated a Treaty United win the most likely single outcome at about 48%, with the full match-result split Treaty United 48%, draw 23%, Finn Harps 29%. The final score 3-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Treaty United), BTTS No — while Under 2.5 went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Treaty United) ✗ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS No
Want to know how this prediction was produced? Read how we price a match →
Want to test this kind of bet across 26 seasons yourself? Open Match Studio →
İR1 More Ireland - 1st Division
15 May 2026
21:45 Cobh Ramblers vs Athlone Town Analysis →
21:45 Kerry vs Wexford Youths Analysis →
21:45 Univ College Dublin vs Bray Wanderers Analysis →