Treaty United 0-1 Finn Harps — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Ireland - 1st Division, 27 Jun 2025

📅27/06/2025 · 🕒21:45 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 2-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
49%
1.86
Draw
22%
3.54
Away
29%
3.48
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
49%
2.07
Over 2.5
51%
1.68
Both Teams to Score
Yes
50%
1.63
No
50%
2.13
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✓
26%
3.85
2-3 Goals
47%
1.82
4-5 Goals
18%
2.99
6+ Goals
9%
9.46
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 3.85 — our 26% vs market 20.0%. Landed.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
23%
1/2
8%
1/X
5%
X/1
19%
X/2
9%
X/X
10%
2/1
7%
2/2
12%
2/X
7%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
49%
Home Win
50%
-0.5pp
22%
Draw
25%
-3.3pp
29%
Away Win
25%
+3.8pp
49%
Under 2.5
44%
+4.3pp
51%
Over 2.5
56%
-4.3pp
50%
BTTS Yes
57%
-7.5pp
50%
BTTS No
43%
+7.5pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Treaty United EU Bookmakers 54%
Head to Head
AWAY Finn Harps EU Bookmakers 29%
+28% / +28% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +7% / -2%
2.58/0.75 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.98/1.29
+65% / +42% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -13% / +13%
55% Ball Possession 45%
13 Total Shots 10
5 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 3
316 · 74% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 242 · 70%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
1.3 Yellow Cards 3.8
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Treaty United
4W-0D-2L
AWAY Finn Harps
1.33 Avg Goals (FT) 0.67
50% Ball Possession 50%
13 Total Shots 14
4 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 5
1 Yellow Cards 4
02.05.2025 Finn Harps Finn Harps 0-2 HT 0-1 Treaty United Treaty United İR1
28.02.2025 Treaty United Treaty United 3-1 HT 1-0 Finn Harps Finn Harps İR1
18.10.2024 Finn Harps Finn Harps 1-2 HT 1-0 Treaty United Treaty United İR1
26.07.2024 Treaty United Treaty United 1-0 HT 0-0 Finn Harps Finn Harps İR1
03.05.2024 Finn Harps Finn Harps 1-0 HT 0-0 Treaty United Treaty United İR1
29.03.2024 Treaty United Treaty United 0-1 HT 0-0 Finn Harps Finn Harps İR1
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Treaty United
0-1
AWAY Finn Harps
68% Ball Possession 32%
13 Total Shots 3
8 Shots on Target 2
6 Corners 1
3 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Treaty United vs Finn Harps
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Finn Harps squeezed past Treaty United 1-0 away from home. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

Our pre-match lean was Treaty United at 49%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 51% and both teams to score was close to even at 50%.

On the day, Treaty United had 68% of the ball to Finn Harps's 32%, shots finished 13-3.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Treaty United had the better of it with 4 wins. Those games averaged 1.33 goals for Treaty United and 0.67 for Finn Harps.

What was the final score of Treaty United vs Finn Harps?

Treaty United 0-1 Finn Harps in the Ireland - 1st Division on 27/06/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Treaty United vs Finn Harps?

Before kick-off our model rated a Treaty United win the most likely single outcome at about 49%, with the full match-result split Treaty United 49%, draw 22%, Finn Harps 29%. The final score 0-1 went against our main leads this time — single matches are noisy by nature; our accuracy is measured across thousands of predictions, not one result.

✗ Match Result (Treaty United) ✗ Over 2.5
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