Kashima Antlers 2-1 Nagoya Grampus — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Japan - J1 League, 15 Aug 2026

📅15/08/2026 · 🕒12:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 1-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
54%
1.86
Draw
27%
3.45
Away
19%
3.71
Under/Over 2.5
Under Pick
55%
1.9
Over
45%
1.82
Both Teams to Score
Yes
46%
1.75
No
54%
1.96
Total Goals
0-1
33%
3.26
2-3
38%
1.77
4-5
20%
3.44
6+
9%
13.35
Value flag · 0-1 at 3.26 — our 33% vs market 24.5%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
26%
2.49
1/2
4%
34.5
1/X
4%
13.3
X/1
21%
4.51
X/2
8%
8.29
X/X
16%
4.81
2/1
7%
24.2
2/2
8%
6.39
2/X
6%
14.55
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Our Pick
Under 2.5 — 55%
Fair price · no betting value
The bookmaker priced every market fairly — no dependable value at these odds, so skipping is the disciplined play.
Our Pick is our best estimate of the outcome; a value flag is a separate, rarer judgement about the price.
STRENGTH Home Win Under 2.5 BTTS No — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
54%
Home Win
50%
+3.6pp
27%
Draw
26%
+0.8pp
20%
Away Win
24%
-4.3pp
55%
Under 2.5
49%
+5.8pp
45%
Over 2.5
51%
-5.8pp
46%
BTTS Yes
53%
-7.4pp
54%
BTTS No
47%
+7.4pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Kashima Antlers EU Bookmakers 54%
Head to Head
AWAY Nagoya Grampus EU Bookmakers 27%
+6% / +9% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -3% / -10%
1.42/1.05 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.09/1.27
-5% / +47% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -10% / -12%
53% Ball Possession 47%
14 Total Shots 9
4 Shots on Target 3
6 Corners 4
355 · 79% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 296 · 76%
23.0 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 18.8
20.4 Crosses 18.5
1.2 Yellow Cards 1.2
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Kashima Antlers
3W-2D-1L
AWAY Nagoya Grampus
1.67 Avg Goals (FT) 0.50
0.87 xG 0.63
48% Ball Possession 52%
12 Total Shots 9
4 Shots on Target 2
4 Corners 6
320 Passes 362
79% Pass Accuracy 81%
16 Box Touches 16
16 Crosses 22
1 Yellow Cards 2
27.09.2025 Nagoya Grampus Nagoya Grampus 0-4 HT 0-2 Kashima Antlers Kashima Antlers JAP
25.04.2025 Kashima Antlers Kashima Antlers 1-0 HT 0-0 Nagoya Grampus Nagoya Grampus JAP
09.11.2024 Kashima Antlers Kashima Antlers 0-0 HT 0-0 Nagoya Grampus Nagoya Grampus JAP
23.02.2024 Nagoya Grampus Nagoya Grampus 0-3 HT 0-1 Kashima Antlers Kashima Antlers JAP
10.09.2023 Kashima Antlers Kashima Antlers 1-2 HT 0-1 Nagoya Grampus Nagoya Grampus JLK
06.09.2023 Nagoya Grampus Nagoya Grampus 1-1 HT 0-0 Kashima Antlers Kashima Antlers JLK
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Kashima Antlers
2-1
AWAY Nagoya Grampus
1.34 xG 0.88
16 Total Shots 13
6 Shots on Target 1
3 Corners 4
386 Passes 401
20 Box Touches 16
18 Crosses 28
3 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH Kashima Antlers vs Nagoya Grampus
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Kashima Antlers edged past Nagoya Grampus 2-1. Half-time: 1-0.

As our pre-match numbers suggested, our model had Kashima Antlers as the likeliest winner at 54%, and the 2-1 landed on that lead. The goals read — under 2.5 goals (55%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, shots finished 16-13, expected goals 1.34 to 0.88.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Kashima Antlers had the better of it with 3 wins, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 1.67 goals for Kashima Antlers and 0.50 for Nagoya Grampus.

What was the final score of Kashima Antlers vs Nagoya Grampus?

Kashima Antlers 2-1 Nagoya Grampus in the Japan - J1 League on 15/08/2026. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Kashima Antlers vs Nagoya Grampus?

Before kick-off our model rated a Kashima Antlers win the most likely single outcome at about 54%, with the full match-result split Kashima Antlers 54%, draw 27%, Nagoya Grampus 20%. The final score 2-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Kashima Antlers) — while Under 2.5, BTTS No went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Kashima Antlers) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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