Fagiano Okayama 1-0 V-Varen Nagasaki — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Japan - J1 League, 15 Aug 2026

📅15/08/2026 · 🕒12:55 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 2nd Score 2-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
45%
1.61
Draw
26%
3.64
Away
29%
4.75
Under/Over 2.5
Under
46%
1.8
Over
54%
1.91
Both Teams to Score
Yes Pick
55%
1.96
No
45%
1.75
Total Goals
0-1
25%
3.0
2-3
42%
1.76
4-5
23%
3.69
6+
10%
15.8
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
20%
2.08
1/2
7%
34.5
1/X
6%
15.55
X/1
15%
4.0
X/2
10%
10.4
X/X
9%
5.02
2/1
11%
24.65
2/2
12%
8.87
2/X
10%
17.5
Value flag · 2/1 at 24.65 — our 11% vs market 1.9%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Our Pick
BTTS Yes — 55%
Fair price · no betting value
The bookmaker priced every market fairly — no dependable value at these odds, so skipping is the disciplined play.
Our Pick is our best estimate of the outcome; a value flag is a separate, rarer judgement about the price.
STRENGTH BTTS Yes — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
45%
Home Win
58%
-12.7pp
26%
Draw
24%
+1.7pp
29%
Away Win
18%
+11.0pp
46%
Under 2.5
52%
-6.1pp
54%
Over 2.5
48%
+6.1pp
55%
BTTS Yes
47%
+7.8pp
45%
BTTS No
53%
-7.8pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Fagiano Okayama EU Bookmakers 62%
Head to Head
AWAY V-Varen Nagasaki EU Bookmakers 21%
+0% / +0% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +9% / +12%
–/– Expected GoalsScored / Conceded –/–
/ Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +55% / -4%
52% Ball Possession 48%
13 Total Shots 12
5 Shots on Target 5
4 Corners 5
272 · 71% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 327 · 77%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 22.4
Crosses 14.4
Yellow Cards 1.6
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Fagiano Okayama
1W-3D-2L
AWAY V-Varen Nagasaki
0.67 Avg Goals (FT) 0.83
0.67 xG 0.61
49% Ball Possession 51%
11 Total Shots 9
3 Shots on Target 3
6 Corners 5
251 Passes 280
72% Pass Accuracy 70%
19 Box Touches 14
26 Crosses 10
2 Yellow Cards 1
06.05.2026 V-Varen Nagasaki V-Varen Nagasaki 2-1 HT 2-0 Fagiano Okayama Fagiano Okayama JAP
21.03.2026 Fagiano Okayama Fagiano Okayama 0-1 HT 0-0 V-Varen Nagasaki V-Varen Nagasaki JAP
29.09.2024 Fagiano Okayama Fagiano Okayama 1-0 HT 0-0 V-Varen Nagasaki V-Varen Nagasaki JAP2
12.05.2024 V-Varen Nagasaki V-Varen Nagasaki 0-0 HT 0-0 Fagiano Okayama Fagiano Okayama JAP2
16.07.2023 Fagiano Okayama Fagiano Okayama 2-2 HT 1-2 V-Varen Nagasaki V-Varen Nagasaki JAP2
17.05.2023 V-Varen Nagasaki V-Varen Nagasaki 0-0 HT 0-0 Fagiano Okayama Fagiano Okayama JAP2
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Fagiano Okayama
1-0
AWAY V-Varen Nagasaki
1.36 xG 0.33
22 Total Shots 3
3 Shots on Target 0
5 Corners 1
269 Passes 411
30 Box Touches 9
36 Crosses 12
0 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH Fagiano Okayama vs V-Varen Nagasaki
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Fagiano Okayama edged past V-Varen Nagasaki 1-0. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

As we highlighted before kick-off, our model had Fagiano Okayama as the likeliest winner at 45%, and the 1-0 landed on that lead. The goals read — both teams to score (55%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, shots finished 22-3, expected goals 1.36 to 0.33.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, V-Varen Nagasaki led the recent series with 2 wins, 3 drawn. Those games averaged 0.67 goals for Fagiano Okayama and 0.83 for V-Varen Nagasaki.

What was the final score of Fagiano Okayama vs V-Varen Nagasaki?

Fagiano Okayama 1-0 V-Varen Nagasaki in the Japan - J1 League on 15/08/2026. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Fagiano Okayama vs V-Varen Nagasaki?

Before kick-off our model rated a Fagiano Okayama win the most likely single outcome at about 45%, with the full match-result split Fagiano Okayama 45%, draw 26%, V-Varen Nagasaki 29%. The final score 1-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Fagiano Okayama) — while Over 2.5, BTTS Yes went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Fagiano Okayama) ✗ Over 2.5 ✗ BTTS Yes
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