V-Varen Nagasaki 2-1 Fagiano Okayama — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Japan - J1 League, 6 May 2026

📅06/05/2026 · 🕒07:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 2nd Score 0-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
32%
2.67
Draw
28%
3.11
Away
40%
2.47
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
54%
1.62
Over 2.5
46%
2.18
Both Teams to Score
Yes
50%
1.9
No
50%
1.81
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
30%
2.48
2-3 Goals
42%
1.7
4-5 Goals
19%
4.21
6+ Goals
9%
21.8
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
9%
1/2
7%
1/X
7%
X/1
11%
X/2
18%
X/X
14%
2/1
11%
2/2
16%
2/X
7%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
31%
Home Win
34%
-2.6pp
28%
Draw
29%
-0.7pp
40%
Away Win
37%
+3.3pp
54%
Under 2.5
58%
-3.6pp
46%
Over 2.5
42%
+3.6pp
50%
BTTS Yes
49%
+1.7pp
50%
BTTS No
51%
-1.7pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME V-Varen Nagasaki EU Bookmakers 37%
Head to Head
AWAY Fagiano Okayama EU Bookmakers 40%
-13% / -13% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +16% / +16%
1.08/1.26 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.48/1.51
-34% / -28% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +1% / +21%
49% Ball Possession 51%
10 Total Shots 11
4 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 4
330 · 75% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 345 · 75%
18.9 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 21.6
17.1 Crosses 17.9
0.4 Yellow Cards 1.0
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME V-Varen Nagasaki
1W-3D-2L
AWAY Fagiano Okayama
0.50 Avg Goals (FT) 1.00
50% Ball Possession 50%
8 Total Shots 14
3 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 7
328 Passes 308
77% Pass Accuracy 77%
11 Crosses 36
1 Yellow Cards 1
21.03.2026 Fagiano Okayama Fagiano Okayama 0-1 HT 0-0 V-Varen Nagasaki V-Varen Nagasaki JAP
29.09.2024 Fagiano Okayama Fagiano Okayama 1-0 HT 0-0 V-Varen Nagasaki V-Varen Nagasaki JAP2
12.05.2024 V-Varen Nagasaki V-Varen Nagasaki 0-0 HT 0-0 Fagiano Okayama Fagiano Okayama JAP2
16.07.2023 Fagiano Okayama Fagiano Okayama 2-2 HT 1-2 V-Varen Nagasaki V-Varen Nagasaki JAP2
17.05.2023 V-Varen Nagasaki V-Varen Nagasaki 0-0 HT 0-0 Fagiano Okayama Fagiano Okayama JAP2
17.09.2022 Fagiano Okayama Fagiano Okayama 3-0 HT 1-0 V-Varen Nagasaki V-Varen Nagasaki JAP2
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME V-Varen Nagasaki
2-1
AWAY Fagiano Okayama
0.61 xG 0.67
49% Ball Possession 51%
11 Total Shots 8
3 Shots on Target 3
5 Corners 3
228 Passes 246
64% Pass Accuracy 66%
14 Box Touches 19
10 Crosses 16
1 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH V-Varen Nagasaki vs Fagiano Okayama
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

V-Varen Nagasaki nicked a narrow win over Fagiano Okayama 2-1. Half-time: 2-0.

We called this one close before kick-off — 31% / 28% / 40% — and on the day V-Varen Nagasaki made the difference.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 46% and both teams to score was close to even at 50%.

On the day, V-Varen Nagasaki had 49% of the ball to Fagiano Okayama's 51%, shots finished 11-8, expected goals 0.61 to 0.67.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Fagiano Okayama led the recent series with 2 wins, 3 drawn. Those games averaged 0.50 goals for V-Varen Nagasaki and 1.00 for Fagiano Okayama.

What was the final score of V-Varen Nagasaki vs Fagiano Okayama?

V-Varen Nagasaki 2-1 Fagiano Okayama in the Japan - J1 League on 06/05/2026. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for V-Varen Nagasaki vs Fagiano Okayama?

Before kick-off our model rated an Fagiano Okayama win the most likely single outcome at about 40%, with the full match-result split V-Varen Nagasaki 31%, draw 28%, Fagiano Okayama 40%. The final score 2-1 went against our main leads this time — single matches are noisy by nature; our accuracy is measured across thousands of predictions, not one result.

✗ Match Result (Fagiano Okayama) ✗ Under 2.5
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